Where Asia Closed Last Session

Friday’s session across the Asia-Pacific was a broad-based rout, and KOSPI took the worst of it. South Korea’s benchmark index cratered 5.72% to 6,690 — the kind of single-session damage that puts the entire semiconductor and battery supply chain on alert heading into this week.

Japan wasn’t spared. The Nikkei 225 dropped 2.73% to 64,611, with yen weakness offering no cushion as exporters sold off alongside the broader market. Taiwan’s TAIEX fell 2.67% to 43,654, dragged by the same chip-sector anxiety that hammered Seoul.

China was firmly red across both boards. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.61% to 3,814 while the Shenzhen Component lost 2.47% — the growth-heavy Shenzhen names taking a harder hit. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.98% to 24,963, a relatively contained loss that may partly reflect Shein’s pre-IPO Hong Kong listing preparations keeping some deal flow alive despite the tariff headwinds flagged in weekend headlines.

Australia’s ASX 200 shed 0.75% to 8,772. India’s Nifty 50 dipped 0.43%. The only green spots: Singapore’s Straits Times Index eked out a 0.12% gain, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 managed a 0.32% lift — defensive markets holding up while the growth-heavy exchanges bled.

US Overnight Snapshot

Monday’s US session was a mixed bag that masks a sharp rotation underneath. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,410 (+0.02%), while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18% and QQQ fell 0.31%. The headline story was under the surface: the Russell 2000 gained 0.60% and financials (XLF) rose 1.01%, while technology (XLK) dropped 0.90%.

That tech-to-value rotation matters for Asia. A weaker Nasdaq overnight will add pressure on HKEX-listed tech and TAIEX semiconductor names at the open. The VIX ticked up to 18.7, not yet above the 20 threshold but trending in the wrong direction after Friday’s Asia selloff. With Meta and Microsoft earnings due this week, AI-related anxiety is building — headlines flagging “cracks in AI-related bonds” won’t help sentiment for Asia’s AI hardware plays.

Commodity + FX Watch

The standout move overnight: WTI crude collapsed 8.23% to $82 — the largest single-session oil decline in months. That wipes out weeks of gains and will hit ASX energy names hard at the open. It also puts pressure on any KOSPI-listed refinery and petrochemical stocks that were already reeling from Friday’s 5.7% index drop.

On the other side, copper rose 1.16% — a positive signal for ASX miners like BHP and South32. Gold edged up 0.19% to $4,080, holding its safe-haven bid without spiking, which suggests caution rather than panic.

AUD/USD firmed 0.39% to 0.699, helped by copper strength and approaching the psychologically important 0.70 level. USD/JPY held steady at 164, keeping the pressure on Japanese importers. The yen’s refusal to strengthen despite Friday’s Nikkei rout suggests the carry trade remains intact — and that any further equity weakness could trigger a sharper unwind.

What to Watch Today

• KOSPI gap risk: Seoul has had three days to process Friday’s 5.72% crash. Watch whether institutional buying emerges at the open or if the selling extends — Samsung and SK Hynix will set the tone for the entire Asian semiconductor complex.
• Oil spillover into ASX energy: An 8.2% crude collapse will force repricing across Woodside, Santos, and Beach Energy before the ASX open. Whether materials (copper +1.16%) can offset the energy drag determines the index-level direction.
• Meta and Microsoft earnings setup: Both report this week. The pre-earnings jitters already visible in US tech (XLK -0.90%) will keep a lid on HKEX internet names and TAIEX chip stocks until those numbers land.
• Shein’s Hong Kong IPO positioning: Weekend headlines about tariff-driven quarterly losses add uncertainty to what would be the year’s biggest HKEX listing — watch for secondary effects on Hong Kong deal flow sentiment.

Bottom Line

The setup for Tuesday’s Asia session leans risk-off, but the damage is uneven. Friday’s selling was concentrated in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan — the tech-export corridor — and the overnight US rotation away from technology reinforces that pressure. Oil’s crash adds a second front for energy-exposed markets like Australia. At Luna3, we see the best-case outcome as selective dip-buying in beaten-down financials and materials names, while high-beta tech faces another session of proving whether Friday’s levels hold.

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