- Nikkei surged 2.08% and TAIEX rallied 1.59% yesterday — North Asian tech and exporters led the region higher
- US large-caps slipped overnight (S&P -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.60%) but small-caps gained and VIX stayed low at 15.3, keeping risk appetite intact
- Gold and oil both jumped 1.6% overnight — watch ASX energy names and commodity-linked FX for follow-through
Where Asia Closed Yesterday
North Asia dominated Monday’s session. The Nikkei 225 surged 2.08% to 66,970, its strongest single-day move in weeks, with exporters catching a bid as yen weakness held steady near 159 against the dollar. Taiwan’s TAIEX wasn’t far behind at +1.59%, riding continued AI hardware demand through TSMC and its supply chain.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.05% to 25,937, while mainland China posted a split session — the Shanghai Composite gained 0.67% to 3,966 but the Shenzhen Component barely moved at +0.04%, suggesting the rally was concentrated in large-cap state-owned names rather than growth and tech. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.65% to 6,299, keeping pace with the broader tech bid across the region.
The laggards were in the southern hemisphere. Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 0.33% to 9,232, dragged by financials and healthcare despite commodity strength. New Zealand’s NZX 50 fell 0.45% to 13,825. India’s Nifty 50 was flat at +0.05%, treading water at 24,583. The Singapore Straits Times Index, last trading at 5,698 on Friday, posted a solid 1.05% gain.
US Overnight Snapshot
Wall Street pulled back modestly from recent highs. The S&P 500 dipped 0.32% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.60%, with mega-cap tech taking profit after a strong run. But the pullback had no panic behind it — the VIX dropped 1.16% to 15.3, well inside complacent territory, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.34%, signaling rotation rather than broad risk-off.
Sector action told a clear story: Energy led at +1.25% on the back of rising oil prices, while Technology (-0.12%) and Financials (-0.02%) were quiet. The AI infrastructure theme stayed alive after hours — Lumentum reported sales more than doubling on AI demand, CoreWeave earnings showed accelerating momentum, and Super Micro climbed on a solid report. That trio should give HKEX-listed cloud and server names something to work with at the open.
Commodity + FX Watch
Gold jumped 1.64% to roughly $4,430, its best overnight move in over a week, as sovereign debt yields drew fresh attention and real rates drifted. That’s a tailwind for ASX gold miners like Newmont and Northern Star at the open.
WTI crude rose 1.64% to $83.50 and copper added 0.64% — both supportive for Australian resource stocks and the broader materials complex across the region. The energy bid also feeds into KOSPI refiners and Singapore-listed commodity traders.
On FX, the Australian dollar edged down 0.12% to 0.706 against the greenback — a mild headwind for ASX earnings but not enough to override the commodity tailwind. USD/JPY held steady at 159, keeping the weak-yen export boost in play for Nikkei names. The yen’s refusal to strengthen despite the broad risk-on tone in Asia yesterday suggests the Bank of Japan isn’t spooking anyone yet.
What to Watch Today
- HKEX tech at the open: After-hours strength in US AI infrastructure names (Lumentum, CoreWeave, Super Micro) should put a bid under Hong Kong-listed cloud and server plays. Watch whether the Hang Seng can build on yesterday’s 1.05% gain or if mainland flows stay concentrated in SOEs.
- ASX energy and gold miners: With WTI up 1.64% and gold up 1.64% overnight, resource stocks could offset the drag from yesterday’s 0.33% decline. Woodside, Santos, Newmont, and Northern Star are the names to watch.
- Nikkei follow-through: A 2% rally needs confirmation. If USD/JPY holds above 159 and US futures stabilize in the Asia morning, exporters like Toyota and Sony could extend. A yen reversal below 158 would stall the move fast.
- Sovereign debt yield dynamics: The overnight spotlight on sovereign yields, combined with gold’s surge, hints at shifting rate expectations. Any hawkish commentary from regional central banks today could reset the tone for rate-sensitive sectors across Asia.
Bottom Line
The overnight setup leans cautiously positive for Asia. US equities pulled back, but it was shallow, orderly, and accompanied by falling volatility and rising commodities — that’s rotation, not retreat. North Asia’s momentum from yesterday, especially in Japan and Taiwan, has room to extend if the yen stays weak and AI earnings beats keep filtering through. Luna3 sees the balance of risks tilting toward a constructive open, with resource-heavy Australia the wildcard depending on whether commodity strength translates into index gains this time.
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