Now I have the confirmed calendar. Let me write the post.

The setup into Jul 06–Jul 10, 2026

Asia Pacific enters the new week with a split tape. Taiwan’s TWSE led the region last week at +5.0%, closing at 46,780.6 on the back of semiconductor strength — Delta Electronics (2308.TW) alone surged +14.6%. Hong Kong followed at +3.0% with the Hang Seng at 23,350.0, driven by tech names NetEase (9999.HK, +9.5%) and JD.com (9618.HK, +8.5%). The ASX 200 added +0.9% to 8,844.4, the Nikkei 225 gained +0.6% to 69,744.1, and India’s Nifty 50 rose +0.9% to 24,270.8. The outlier was South Korea — the KOSPI dropped -3.8% to 8,088.3, with SK Hynix (000660.KS, -9.3%) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, -8.8%) dragging the index as memory-chip pricing concerns resurfaced. The week ahead has no central-bank decisions in the region, but two data events carry outsized weight: China’s June inflation print on Thursday and the FOMC minutes from the June meeting landing Wednesday evening.

Jul 06–Jul 10, 2026 — the calendar

Monday, Jul 06: Light start. Australia gets the TD-MI inflation gauge and ANZ-Indeed job ads for June — both soft reads ahead of the August 11 RBA decision. Singapore publishes May retail sales (prior: +5.4% YoY). South Korea holds a 3-year KTB auction. Japan runs a routine BoJ JGB purchase operation.

Tuesday, Jul 07: China reports June foreign exchange reserves (prior: $3.442T) — the market watches for drawdowns that signal PBoC intervention pressure on the yuan. Japan releases the May current account (prior: ¥4,121B) and the preliminary Leading Economic Index for May (prior: 116.1). South Korea publishes its May current account. Japan holds a 30-year JGB auction — the long end matters with BOJ policy normalisation expectations building ahead of the July 30–31 meeting.

Wednesday, Jul 08 — the pivot day: RBA Deputy Governor Hunter speaks — the only central-bank voice in the region this week. With the cash rate at 4.35% and the next RBA decision five weeks away, any hawkish lean moves AUD and the ASX rates complex. Australia also releases final May building permits (prior: -1.1% MoM). Japan publishes the June Eco Watchers survey. After the Asia close, the FOMC minutes from the June 16–17 meeting drop at 6:00 PM GMT. Three weeks post-decision, the internal debate on rate timing sets Thursday’s opening tone across the region.

Thursday, Jul 09 — China inflation day: The marquee release. China’s June CPI (prior: +1.2% YoY, forecast: ~1.2–1.3%) and PPI (prior: +3.9% YoY, forecast: ~3.5%) land at 09:30 Beijing time. The PPI deceleration from the prior month’s Middle East supply-disruption spike reprices the entire commodity chain — iron ore, copper, and the Australian miners that track them. Japan reports preliminary June machine tool orders (prior: +37.4% YoY) — the capex bellwether heading into the BOJ meeting. Japan also holds a 5-year JGB auction.

Friday, Jul 10: South Korea holds a 50-year KTB ultra-long auction. India reports weekly forex reserves and monthly bank loan/deposit growth data — the credit pulse check.

Levels and instruments to watch

The TWSE at 46,780.6 is the momentum leader — its +5.0% week was the strongest move in the region, and the semiconductor supply chain (Delta +14.6%, TSMC ecosystem) is the engine. Whether that pace sustains depends on whether the US tech tape holds through FOMC minutes digestion. The Hang Seng at 23,350.0 just posted its best week in the data set (+3.0%) — the 23,000 level is the floor to hold for continuation. JD.com and NetEase carried it; a broadening into financials (China Life 2628.HK, +8.3%) suggests more than just a tech bounce.

The KOSPI at 8,088.3 is the problem child. Samsung -8.8% and SK Hynix -9.3% in a single week is a demand signal, not a one-off. If China’s PPI deceleration confirms softer industrial activity, Korean exporters face a second leg of pressure. Watch 8,000 as psychological support.

On the ASX 200 at 8,844.4, iron ore miners (FMG -3.7%, fortescue weakness) are the China-PPI transmission channel. Thursday’s print either stabilises or extends that drag. The Nikkei at 69,744.1 trades the yen and the BOJ expectation curve — Nintendo (7974.T, +8.2%) shows domestic demand is alive, but the July 30–31 meeting shadow starts lengthening.

The bias

Risk-on tilt into the week, but conditional. The broad tape is green — six of eight major indices gained last week, and the two strongest moves (TWSE +5.0%, Hang Seng +3.0%) were in high-beta tech and China reopening names. That momentum carries into Monday. The absence of central-bank decisions removes a volatility source. The conditional part is Thursday: China’s PPI reading either validates the commodity reflation thesis or undercuts it. A PPI miss below 3.5% — suggesting the prior month’s spike was purely supply-side — would hit iron ore, copper, and the Australian miners hardest. A CPI surprise above 1.3% would reopen the question of whether PBoC easing is done.

The one thing that flips the bias: hawkish FOMC minutes on Wednesday evening. If the June debate shows material opposition to near-term cuts, the yen weakens, the carry trade re-engages, and Asian equities face a dollar-strength headwind into the back half of the week. Korea, already down -3.8%, would be most exposed.