European indices closed last session in the red across the board, and the overnight US rout — the Nasdaq’s biggest point drop on record — means Monday’s open will test whether the continent’s relative resilience holds or cracks under the weight of a $1.8 trillion Wall Street wipeout.

Where Europe Closed Last Session

Every major European index finished lower, though the damage was contained compared to what followed in New York. The DAX 40 and OMX Copenhagen 25 shared the worst performance at -0.92% each — Copenhagen dragged by Zealand Pharma, which lost roughly a fifth of its value after trial data showed high discontinuation rates for its weight-loss drug. The CAC 40 fell -0.77%, the Euro STOXX 50 dropped -0.73%, and the SMI slipped -0.64% as Swiss defensives failed to insulate from broad risk-off flows.

The IBEX 35 lost -0.52% and the AEX gave back -0.36%, while the FTSE 100 held up best among major benchmarks at -0.34% — helped by its heavy energy and mining weighting, which would prove prescient given the overnight oil spike. Italy’s FTSE MIB was nearly flat at -0.04%, an outlier that suggests domestic bank positioning may have provided a floor. The pattern was clear: tech-heavy and healthcare-exposed indices suffered most, while value-tilted markets held firmer.

US Overnight Snapshot

Friday’s US session was brutal. The S&P 500 fell -2.64%, the Nasdaq Composite plunged -4.18%, and the Russell 2000 dropped -3.55%, leaving no corner of the market untouched. Technology was the epicentre — XLK cratered -6.66%, its worst session in months, driven by the Nvidia memory-chip supply chain reshuffle that sent SK Hynix and Samsung sharply lower in Asia. Financials were the lone bright spot at +0.21%.

The VIX settled at 19.8, just below the 20 threshold that typically signals sustained fear. For Europe, the implications are direct: ASML, SAP, and Infineon will face heavy selling pressure at the open given the Nasdaq’s performance. The rotation out of tech into value — a theme US headlines are calling “Wall Street’s hottest trade” — could benefit European banks and industrials if it sustains through the week.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil is the standout overnight move. WTI crude surged +4.42% to $94.50, its biggest jump in over a month, after fresh attacks threatened the Iran ceasefire. That is a direct tailwind for Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies at the London and Paris opens, but it reintroduces energy-cost inflation concerns for the broader eurozone economy. Gold edged lower by -0.54% to around $4,310, suggesting the selloff was about growth fears rather than a pure flight to safety.

Copper gained +0.78%, a modest positive for materials names on the FTSE 100 and STOXX 600. AUD/USD dropped -1.16%, reflecting the risk-off mood. USD/JPY was flat at 160, offering no fresh signal for EUR/JPY carry positions. European exporters — Airbus, LVMH, Siemens — will be watching EUR/USD closely; any dollar strength from the risk-off bid could provide a tailwind for earnings translation.

What to Watch Today

• Tech open pricing: ASML, SAP, and Infineon are the first test. Nasdaq’s -4.18% and XLK’s -6.66% session suggest gap-downs of 2-4% are likely — watch whether European tech finds buyers below Friday’s close or sellers accelerate.
• Energy momentum: Oil’s +4.42% surge on Iran supply-disruption fears puts Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies in focus. If geopolitical headlines escalate over the weekend, energy could be the session’s outperformer.
• Copenhagen pharma fallout: Zealand Pharma’s -20% session could spill into Monday if analysts issue downgrades. Novo Nordisk, the GLP-1 market leader, may see sympathy volatility given the weight-loss drug trial headlines — though the Wegovy pill’s continued dominance could insulate it.
• Rotation signal: US financials finished green while tech was demolished. If that rotation continues into European trade, look for eurozone bank names to hold or rally while semis and software take the brunt.

Bottom Line

Monday’s European session opens into the teeth of Wall Street’s worst tech rout in months, with the Nasdaq’s record point drop and a $1.8 trillion wipeout weighing on sentiment. The setup favours a risk-off open with tech names gapping lower, but oil’s surge and the tech-to-value rotation give energy and financials a contrarian bid. Luna3 will be watching whether European indices hold their relatively modest Friday losses or converge toward the deeper US damage as the session develops.

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