Where Europe Closed Last Session

European equities posted a broadly positive session on Monday, but the gains were uneven — and the overnight US tech rout may have already erased the mood.

Italy’s FTSE MIB was the standout, climbing 1.15% to 52,433 as bank-heavy Southern European indices caught a bid. France’s CAC 40 rose 0.75% to 8,447.27, with IBEX 35 not far behind at +0.69% to 19,163.60. The FTSE 100 added 0.61% to close at 10,494.20, helped by mining and commodity names that may give back some of those gains today given the oil drop overnight.

Germany’s DAX 40 was the laggard among the gainers, inching up just 0.07% to 24,910.41 — essentially flat. That stall matters because DAX is the most tech-exposed major European index, and the overnight Nasdaq selloff suggests Wednesday’s open could be rough for the likes of SAP, Infineon, and Siemens Energy. The Euro STOXX 50 rose 0.45% to 6,257.42, while Switzerland’s SMI gained 0.32% to 13,761.53 as defensives held steady.

On the losing side, the AEX dropped 0.51% to 1,070.05 — notable because Amsterdam houses ASML, Europe’s most valuable tech name and the one most directly exposed to Nasdaq sentiment. OMX Copenhagen fell 0.91% to 1,746.19, with Novo Nordisk likely dragging the index as healthcare momentum cooled.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street delivered a clear rotation signal. The S&P 500 slipped 0.57% while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.15%, but the real story was under the hood: XLK (Technology) cratered 2.79% while XLF (Financials) surged 1.47%. That kind of spread — over four percentage points of sector divergence in a single session — is a textbook growth-to-value rotation.

The tech damage will translate directly to European opens. ASML, SAP, and ASMI in Amsterdam and Frankfurt are the first names to watch for gap-down risk. Conversely, European banks — BNP Paribas, UniCredit, Barclays — could see follow-through buying if the financials bid carries across the Atlantic.

VIX ticked up to 16.4, rising 1.3%. Not panic territory, but the direction matters more than the level here. The Russell 2000 fell 0.87%, confirming this wasn’t simply a large-cap tech story — small caps sold off too, which tempers the pure-rotation read slightly.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil is the headline mover. WTI crude dropped 1.96% to $74.60 after the US and Iran reached a deal, with supply implications rippling through energy markets. For Europe, that’s a direct headwind for Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies at the open, but a tailwind for airlines and consumer discretionary names that benefit from lower input costs.

Gold edged up 0.40% to around $4,350, a mild safe-haven bid that aligns with the risk-off tone in US equities. Copper rose 0.55% — a quiet positive for miners like Glencore and Rio Tinto, partially offsetting the oil drag on the FTSE 100’s commodity complex.

On the FX side, the dollar is under pressure on the Iran deal headlines. AUD/USD slipped 0.19% to 0.706, while USD/JPY was flat at 160. A weaker dollar broadly supports euro-denominated exporters — think Airbus, LVMH, and the German auto names — though the effect is modest unless the move accelerates through the European session.

What to Watch Today

• Tech gap-down risk in Amsterdam and Frankfurt. ASML, SAP, Infineon, and ASMI are the most exposed names to the Nasdaq -1.15% / XLK -2.79% overnight move. Watch whether European buyers step in on the dip or whether selling accelerates.
• Oil-sensitive names after the US-Iran deal. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies face a soft open with WTI down nearly 2%. The deal’s details are still emerging — headlines suggest supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz may shift first, with broader implications to follow.
• European banks as a rotation target. If the US financials +1.47% move has legs, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank could outperform. FTSE MIB’s 1.15% gain on Monday already hinted at this positioning.
• Copenhagen recovery watch. OMX Copenhagen’s 0.91% decline makes it the worst-performing major European index — Novo Nordisk direction will determine whether that reverses or deepens.

Bottom Line

The setup for Wednesday’s European session is mixed — Monday’s broad gains provide a positive base, but the overnight US tech rotation introduces real downside risk for the growth-heavy corners of the market. The most likely outcome is a split open: tech and semiconductor names gap lower while banks and value sectors hold or extend. At Luna3, we see the US-Iran oil drop as the wildcard — if it deepens through the European morning, energy names could drag the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 lower despite the otherwise constructive tone from Southern Europe.

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