Where Europe Closed Last Session

London stood apart on Friday. The FTSE 100 climbed 0.30% to 10,529, buoyed by energy and commodity names that tend to benefit when oil rips higher. The SMI in Zurich edged up 0.08% to 14,246, and Copenhagen’s OMX 25 gained 0.27% to 1,876 — both reflecting the defensive bid that held through the session.

Continental benchmarks told a different story. The DAX 40 slipped 0.13% to 25,034, weighed down by export-sensitive industrials. The CAC 40 fell 0.10% to 8,331, while the Euro STOXX 50 dropped 0.25% to 6,255 — the weakest reading among the majors. Spain’s IBEX 35 was the clear laggard, shedding 0.41% to 19,306. Italy’s FTSE MIB and the Dutch AEX were essentially flat, down 0.01% and 0.03% respectively.

The split was clean: UK and Swiss names held up on commodity and defensive flows, while eurozone growth proxies faded into the close. That divergence sets up an interesting Monday — especially with overnight oil adding fuel to the UK side of the trade.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street closed Friday on a positive note. The S&P 500 rose 0.42% to 7,580, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.29%. The VIX dropped 5.11% to 15, signalling that implied volatility is well contained heading into a week loaded with US bank earnings.

Sector action was telling. Materials led with a 1.25% gain in XLB, a move that should support European miners and chemicals names like ArcelorMittal, Rio Tinto, and BASF. Energy added 0.47%, tracking crude higher. Technology rose a modest 0.23% — enough to keep ASML and SAP from facing heavy selling pressure, but not enough to drive a gap higher. Small-cap Russell 2000 bucked the trend, falling 0.42%, a sign that risk appetite was selective rather than broad.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil is the headline. WTI surged 3.67% to $74 after fresh US-Iran military strikes reignited supply-risk fears. That move hands a direct tailwind to Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies at the European open, and should keep the FTSE 100’s energy-heavy index bid.

Gold pulled back 0.95% to $4,070, suggesting the flight-to-safety trade hasn’t fully engaged despite geopolitical noise. Copper was flat, down just 0.02% — no signal for European industrials either way.

On the FX side, AUD/USD slipped 0.13% to 0.694. USD/JPY drifted lower by 0.14% to 162. For European exporters, the key question is whether the dollar strength that pushed gold lower also pressures EUR/USD — a weaker euro would help DAX exporters like Siemens and BMW offset the softness from Friday’s session.

What to Watch Today

• Oil price follow-through: The 3.67% WTI spike on US-Iran strikes will be the dominant open driver. If Brent tracks higher in early European trading, energy names will lead — but a reversal would pull the FTSE 100’s Friday outperformance back to earth.
• US bank earnings week: Citigroup headlines are already in focus. European banks — BNP Paribas, Barclays, Deutsche Bank — often take directional cues from US earnings reactions. Watch financials sector tone through the morning.
• Materials sector bid: The 1.25% XLB gain plus the ArcelorMittal headline suggest European materials could see follow-through. Glencore, ArcelorMittal, and Anglo American are the names to track.
• DAX recovery attempt: The index closed just above 25,000. A failure to hold that psychological level on Monday would mark a second consecutive session of continental underperformance versus the UK.

Bottom Line

The carry-over setup leans constructive for European opens on Monday. A rising US market, falling VIX, and surging oil prices give London’s commodity-heavy FTSE 100 the clearest path forward, while continental indices need to prove Friday’s dip was profit-taking rather than the start of something broader. The geopolitical risk premium in crude is real but narrow — Luna3 sees a session where energy outperforms and the rest follows Wall Street’s lead unless headlines escalate further.

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