Where Europe Closed Last Session

Friday’s session left European markets split down the middle. The continent’s growth-sensitive benchmarks squeezed out modest gains — DAX 40 closed at 25,629 (+0.07%), CAC 40 at 8,510 (+0.28%), and the Euro STOXX 50 at 6,358 (+0.21%). Southern Europe followed the same script: IBEX 35 gained 0.13% and FTSE MIB added 0.13%.

The defensive corners of the map told a different story. London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.27% to 10,868, weighed down by resource heavyweights as commodity prices softened into the close. The AEX in Amsterdam was the session’s clear laggard, dropping 0.50% to 1,099 — tech and semiconductor names bore the brunt. Switzerland’s SMI fell 0.32% to 14,346, with pharma dragging. OMX Copenhagen 25 shed 0.26%.

The pattern was clear: eurozone cyclicals outperformed while export-heavy, commodity-linked, and rate-sensitive names in London, Zurich, and Amsterdam underperformed. That divergence sets up a question for Monday — does the US weekend rally extend the eurozone bid, or does the oil crash pull London lower still?

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street closed Friday with a firm large-cap bid. The S&P 500 rose 0.70% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.00%, powered by mega-cap tech earnings momentum — Amazon’s profit surge drew headlines, and Meta’s cash generation reinforced the AI-spending bull case. The VIX dropped 6.44% to 16, a level that signals complacency more than caution.

Under the surface, though, the rally was narrow. The Russell 2000 fell 0.48%, extending small-cap underperformance. Financials (XLF -0.11%) and Technology (XLK -0.22%) both closed marginally red on an equal-weight basis even as the cap-weighted indices surged — breadth was thin.

For Europe, the Nasdaq strength should support ASML, SAP, and Infineon at the open. But the Russell weakness and materials sector collapse (XLB -2.34%) could keep pressure on mid-cap industrials and miners across the FTSE 100 and OMX indices.

Commodity + FX Watch

Oil’s 6.76% collapse to $78.90 is the number that matters most for London this morning. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies will feel immediate pressure — crude’s drop erases weeks of range-bound stability and reopens the question of OPEC+ discipline heading into Q3. Energy names across the FTSE 100 and Euro STOXX 50 should gap lower.

Gold rallied 1.75% above $4,120, and copper surged 2.03% — a rare combination that usually signals simultaneous safe-haven demand and industrial optimism. Swiss gold refiners and Nordic copper miners (Boliden, Lundin) may benefit.

In FX, the USD/JPY plunge of 2.15% to 157 signals a yen carry-trade unwind that historically rattles European exporters with Japanese revenue. AUD/USD was flat at 0.703. The euro’s implied strength against a weakening dollar should help European importers but may weigh on euro-zone exporters like LVMH and Airbus at the margin.

What to Watch Today

• Oil repricing through energy majors. A nearly 7% crude drop over one session demands a re-rating. Watch Shell (.L), BP (.L), and TotalEnergies (.PA) for opening gaps — if they hold above Friday’s lows, dip buyers may step in, but a clean break lower opens the door to the next support band.
• Eurozone manufacturing PMI (final July). Monday brings the final manufacturing PMI readings for Germany, France, and the eurozone. The flash print showed continued contraction — any downward revision could weigh on DAX industrials. UK manufacturing PMI also due.
• Yen unwind spillover. The sharp USD/JPY move suggests positioning stress. European banks with Asian trading desks and luxury names with Japan exposure (Hermès, LVMH, Richemont) may see indirect pressure if the unwind continues through Asian hours before London opens.
• Amsterdam tech recovery. The AEX was Friday’s worst performer at -0.50%. With Nasdaq up 1.00% overnight, ASML and Adyen should see a relief bid — watch whether Amsterdam can reclaim the 1,100 level early.

Bottom Line

Monday’s setup is cautiously risk-on for European equities, but with a sharp oil-driven headwind for London specifically. The US large-cap rally and compressed VIX support a constructive open for the DAX, CAC, and Euro STOXX 50 — but thin breadth stateside and the yen’s violent move suggest the calm may not last through the full session. At Luna3, we’re watching whether oil stabilises above $78 and whether Amsterdam’s tech names can catch up to the Nasdaq’s Friday strength. The week starts with a split tape — pick your sectors carefully.

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