Where Europe Closed Last Session

Monday’s session left Europe split down the middle. The Swiss SMI stood out as the clear winner, climbing +0.61% to 14,633.70 — defensive heavyweights like Nestlé, Roche, and Novartis catching a bid as investors rotated out of growth. That was the only index to post a move above half a percent in either direction.

The core eurozone held flat to marginally positive. The Euro STOXX 50 edged up +0.18% to 6,535.62, the AEX gained +0.17% to 1,113.35, and the CAC 40 added +0.13% to 8,726.03. The DAX 40 was effectively unchanged at +0.02%, closing at 26,323.88. None of these moves signal conviction — more like a market waiting for a reason to move.

The UK underperformed. The FTSE 100 dropped -0.35% to 10,862.50, the worst read across major European benchmarks. Given that energy names dominate the FTSE, that weakness looks set to reverse at today’s open given what happened in US energy overnight. Southern Europe was quiet: the IBEX 35 was flat at -0.01%, and the FTSE MIB slipped -0.10%. Copenhagen’s OMX 25 added +0.10%.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street delivered a mixed session that tilts the setup toward old-economy Europe. The S&P 500 dipped -0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite fell -0.32%, dragged by tech — the Technology sector (XLK) dropped -0.88%. That pressure will weigh on ASML, SAP, and Infineon at the open.

The standout was energy. XLE surged +4.66%, the largest single-session sector move in weeks, riding WTI oil’s +1.81% jump to $83.60. Materials added +0.61% and financials gained +0.36%. Berkshire Hathaway breaking its 14-quarter selling streak with $23.5 billion in stock purchases — $10 billion into a single company at a private price — underlines where institutional capital is flowing: away from momentum tech and into value.

The VIX rose +3.76% to 15.5. That’s still well below the 20 stress threshold, but the direction matters — implied vol is ticking higher even as the S&P sits near highs. Small caps (Russell 2000 -0.52%) confirmed the risk-off lean.

Commodity + FX Watch

Gold pushed +1.47% to around $4,430 — a move that pairs with the VIX uptick to suggest hedging demand is building quietly. Swiss gold refiners and European mining names with precious metals exposure should see interest.

Oil at $83.60 (+1.81%) is the most directly tradeable signal for Europe today. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies closed Monday before this move printed. Expect catch-up buying at the open, particularly in London where energy carries outsized FTSE 100 index weight — Monday’s -0.35% FTSE decline looks like it gets erased on energy alone.

Copper added +0.58% to $6.63, a modest tailwind for materials and miners like Glencore and Rio Tinto. On the FX side, USD/JPY jumped +0.85% to 159, signaling broad dollar strength. AUD/USD slipped -0.13%. A firmer dollar typically pressures euro-denominated exporters, but the commodity bid may offset that drag for Airbus, LVMH, and other large-cap European exporters.

What to Watch Today

• FTSE 100 energy catch-up: Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) need to price in overnight oil’s +1.81% move. Watch whether the FTSE can reclaim Monday’s -0.35% loss in the first hour — if energy opens strong but the index stays flat, UK domestic names are dragging harder than the tape shows.
• Tech rotation pressure on the DAX: SAP and Infineon together account for a significant share of DAX weight. With US tech (XLK) down -0.88% and Nvidia’s $500B AI infrastructure financing deal reshuffling the capex narrative, watch whether European semis hold their bids or join the Nasdaq’s fade.
• Gold miners and Swiss defensives: The SMI’s +0.61% outperformance plus gold’s +1.47% overnight move points to continued defensive rotation. If risk appetite weakens further into the session, Zurich may outperform Frankfurt and Paris for a second straight day.
• Berkshire’s $23.5B buying spree: The signal that Warren Buffett ended 14 quarters of net selling with a massive capital deployment — including $10B into a single name — could shift sentiment toward European value and financials. Watch eurozone bank names for sympathy flows.

Bottom Line

The setup for Tuesday’s European session is a tale of two sectors. Energy and commodities hand London and the resource-heavy corners of the STOXX 600 a clean tailwind, while overnight tech weakness creates a headwind for the DAX and Amsterdam’s semiconductor cluster. With the VIX ticking up but still below 20, this looks like sector rotation rather than a broad risk-off event — and that favors the parts of Europe that US tech sell-offs tend to leave alone. Luna3 sees the FTSE 100 as the index most likely to reverse Monday’s loss at the open, with Swiss defensives continuing to attract quiet capital on the margins.

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