Where Europe Closed Last Session

Thursday’s European session told two stories. The FTSE 100 led the downside, falling 0.56% to 10,772.70 as UK-listed commodity names and domestics gave back ground. The CAC 40 slipped 0.28% to 8,650.56, with the DAX 40 barely red at -0.12% to 26,299.74. The IBEX 35 and FTSE MIB were quiet, both down less than 0.2%.

The winners told a cleaner story. The AEX in Amsterdam jumped 0.66% to 1,119.59 — the standout on the continent — as Dutch tech and semiconductor weight pulled it higher. The OMX Copenhagen 25 rose 0.51% to 1,899.43, with Novo Nordisk and its healthcare peers doing the lifting. The Euro STOXX 50 managed a 0.18% gain to 6,545.47, suggesting the broader eurozone large-cap basket held up better than national indices imply. The SMI in Zurich added 0.18% to 14,475.13, with Swiss defensives doing their usual steady work.

The split — UK and France down, Netherlands and Nordics up — reflects a rotation into tech-adjacent and healthcare quality at the expense of old-economy and resource-heavy boards.

US Overnight Snapshot

Wall Street delivered a clean risk-on session. The S&P 500 rose 0.65% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81%, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF up a full 1.16%. The catalyst was straightforward: July CPI came in exactly at expectations. No upside surprise, no reason for the Fed to talk tough. Markets exhaled.

Technology led with the XLK up 1.01%, and financials followed at +0.59%. Materials were the outlier, dropping 0.51%. The VIX sat at 14.6 — barely above the floor — reinforcing the “eerily calm” tone one headline flagged. The Russell 2000 lagged at +0.26%, suggesting the bid was concentrated in large-cap growth rather than broad-based.

For Europe, the Nasdaq strength should give ASML, SAP, and Infineon a tailwind at the open. The financial sector bid supports eurozone banks. But the narrow breadth is worth watching — if only mega-caps are moving, the carry-through to mid-cap Europe will be limited.

Commodity + FX Watch

Gold pushed higher by 0.62% to around $4,390 as tame inflation data kept real yields in check — good for gold miners on the FTSE 100 like Fresnillo and Endeavour. WTI crude rose 1.01% to $82.10 after the IEA forecast tightening inventories for Q3, which should offer a floor under Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies after Thursday’s weak session for the FTSE.

Copper was flat, down 0.10% — no signal either way for European industrials. On the FX side, the dollar gained ground after CPI, with USD/JPY steady near 159 and AUD/USD at 0.707. A firmer dollar typically pressures EUR/USD, which would benefit European exporters — Airbus, LVMH, and the German auto complex all price better when the euro is softer against the greenback.

What to Watch Today

• AEX momentum vs. FTSE drag: Thursday’s divergence sets up a test — does the US tech rally extend the AEX’s outperformance, or does the FTSE rebound on the oil bid? Shell and BP open with a 1% crude tailwind they didn’t have yesterday.
• CPI carry-through: The in-line US inflation print removes a risk for the ECB and BoE — both can point to transatlantic disinflation holding. Watch European rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, utilities) for a relief bid at the open.
• Materials weakness: US materials dropped 0.51% against a broadly green tape. If that theme travels, European miners and chemicals (Glencore, BASF, Rio Tinto’s London listing) could face selling pressure despite the commodity complex being otherwise supportive.
• FOMO rally durability: Multiple headlines flagged the calm as unnerving. VIX at 14.6 with indices near highs and summer liquidity thin — any Friday profit-taking in the US afternoon could unwind the European morning bid quickly.

Bottom Line

The setup leans risk-on for European opens Friday. US CPI removed the last near-term inflation scare, tech rallied hard, and oil’s rise gives energy names a reason to recover after Thursday’s FTSE weakness. The risk is that this is a thin-liquidity August rally running on momentum rather than conviction — the VIX sitting below 15 with indices at highs is comfort, not confirmation. Luna3 readers should watch whether the early bid holds through the London morning or fades into weekend hedging.

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