The setup into Jul 06–Jul 10, 2026

Europe closed the week ending Jul 03 with broad strength. The DAX led at 25,779.3, up +4.5% — its best weekly gain in months. The Euro Stoxx 50 added +3.1% to 6,412.7, the FTSE MIB rose +3.0% to 52,819.0, and the IBEX 35 gained +2.2% to 19,852.4. The FTSE 100 climbed +1.6% to 10,679.0, the SMI +1.8% to 14,424.2, and the AEX +2.1% to 1,083.2. The outlier was the OMX Stockholm 30, flat at 3,247.0. The rally was led by cyclicals: Bayer (+13.5%), Thales (+10.0%), LSEG (+7.5%), Deutsche Bank (+7.4%), and Airbus (+7.4%). Luxury dragged — Kering fell -7.0% and Pernod Ricard -3.2%. That cyclical-over-luxury rotation carries into the new week.

Jul 06–Jul 10, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Jul 06: Sentix Investor Confidence for July — the first read on eurozone investor sentiment this month. The June print came in at +4.5, the highest since February 2022, so the bar is set. In the US, the ISM Services PMI (June) sets the macro tone early; the prior reading was 54.0 with services employment at 47.9. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks.

Tuesday Jul 07: Germany releases May factory orders and trade balance. Factory orders have been the swing indicator for the German industrial recession — a second consecutive positive print would strengthen the case for a Q2 trough. The US trade balance (May) follows; the prior -$78.3 billion reading was historically wide, and any narrowing would ease dollar pressure on EUR crosses. The NY Fed’s 1-year consumer inflation expectations (June) are also due, with the prior at 3.2%.

Wednesday Jul 08: The week’s marquee session. Germany’s May industrial production lands first — paired with Tuesday’s orders, this is the two-print sequence that tells you whether the manufacturing base is stabilising or still contracting. Then at 14:00 ET, the FOMC releases minutes from the June 16-17 meeting — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who declined to participate in the dot plot. Markets will parse the internal debate on rate trajectory; any hawkish lean would push Bund yields higher and pressure rate-sensitive European equities. Separately, China publishes June CPI and PPI. Persistent PPI deflation in China weighs directly on European luxury names (Kering, LVMH, Hermès) and industrials with mainland exposure (BASF, Siemens).

Thursday Jul 09: France releases May industrial production and trade balance. A German Bund auction is expected — Deutsche Finanzagentur typically issues on the first and third Thursdays of each month. US weekly jobless claims (week ending Jul 04) land at 08:30 ET. PepsiCo reports Q2 earnings (EPS estimate $2.21).

Friday Jul 10: The UK delivers May monthly GDP alongside industrial production and trade balance — a three-print bundle from the ONS. This is the last hard data before the pre-BoE blackout period ahead of the July 30 decision. A strong GDP print would push back rate-cut expectations; a miss would accelerate them. Delta Air Lines reports Q2 earnings.

No ECB decision this week — the next rate meeting is July 22-23. No BoE decision either (July 30). The European Q2 earnings season begins in earnest the third week of July; this week is quiet on corporate reports.

Levels and instruments to watch

The DAX at 25,779.3 is the lead index. The +4.5% weekly surge took it well clear of the 25,000 round number — the question is whether 25,500 holds as support on any pullback driven by Wednesday’s FOMC minutes or weak German data. Below 25,000 would unwind the breakout.

The Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,412.7 is testing the upper end of its 2026 range. A close above 6,450 would mark a new leg; failure to hold 6,350 on a down day would signal the rally is fading into the ECB meeting on Jul 23.

The FTSE 100 at 10,679.0 has underperformed the continent — the +1.6% week lagged the DAX by nearly 3 percentage points. Friday’s UK GDP print could be the catalyst that either closes or widens that gap ahead of the BoE.

The OMX Stockholm 30 at 3,247.0 was flat while everything else rallied. It’s either a lag that catches up or an early warning — watch whether it breaks above 3,280 or rolls over below 3,220.

The bias

Risk-on into the week, but conditional. The cyclical rotation that drove the DAX’s +4.5% surge suggests money is moving toward growth over defence, and sentiment readings (Sentix at multi-year highs) confirm that. The calendar is back-loaded: Monday and Tuesday set up the German industrial picture, Wednesday delivers the FOMC minutes and China inflation data simultaneously — that’s where the week pivots.

The one thing that flips the read: hawkish FOMC minutes paired with deeper-than-expected Chinese PPI deflation on the same day. That combination would hit European equities from both sides — higher rate expectations tightening financial conditions while demand from China weakens. A dovish lean from the Warsh minutes, on the other hand, would give the DAX room to extend toward 26,000.