- ASML's Q2 report on Wednesday is the single biggest European catalyst — EUV order bookings will signal whether the AI capex cycle still has legs for Europe's semiconductor supply chain
- The DAX at 25,067 after a -2.8% week faces a test: China Q2 GDP on Wednesday is a direct read-through for German auto and industrial exporters
- Bias leans defensive into the week — broad European selling last week meets a wall of US inflation data and Fed testimony that will set the tone ahead of the ECB decision on Jul 23
The setup into Jul 13–Jul 17, 2026
European equities limped into the weekend with losses across nearly every major bourse. The DAX dropped -2.8% to 25,067, the CAC 40 fell -2.0% to 8,339, and the FTSE 100 shed -1.7% to 10,497. The IBEX 35 lost -2.4% to 19,384. Only the AEX (+0.1% to 1,084) and OMX Stockholm 30 (flat at 3,178) held the line. The selling was led by healthcare — AstraZeneca collapsed -11.2% — and extended into semis (Infineon -6.3%), luxury (Kering parent Vinci -7.0%), and autos (Volkswagen -4.9%, Bayer -6.1%). Energy was the one pocket of strength, with Shell +5.1% and BP +3.3%. The week ahead is heavy: ASML earnings, China GDP, US CPI, and Fed Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony all land before Friday.
Jul 13–Jul 17, 2026 — the calendar
Tuesday Jul 14: Ericsson reports Q2 at 07:00 CEST — a read on telecom infrastructure spending across Europe. Across the Atlantic, US June CPI lands at 8:30 AM ET (consensus 3.8% YoY, down from 4.2%), the single most market-moving US print of the week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 AM ET. Any hawkish signals will pressure EUR/USD and European rate expectations directly ahead of the ECB’s Jul 23 decision.
Wednesday Jul 15: The densest day of the week. ASML reports Q2 at 07:00 CEST — the marquee European event. Analysts expect EPS +75% YoY; the watch is EUV order bookings after SK Hynix placed a record €6.86B order earlier this year. Gross margins guided 51-52% for Q2 versus 53% in Q1. At the same time, Eurozone May industrial production prints (prior: +0.1% MoM). China releases Q2 GDP — a direct read-through for European luxury, autos, and industrials with heavy mainland exposure. Warsh testifies again, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. US June PPI also lands. Burberry holds its AGM in London at 10:30 AM with votes on remuneration and board composition.
Thursday Jul 16: Nordic earnings arrive in a burst — Swedbank, Volvo, Danske Bank, Sandvik, and Epiroc all report between 07:00 and 09:30 CEST. That cluster will move European financials and industrials in a compressed window. Eurozone May trade balance prints (prior: -€1.0B deficit versus a +€8.7B surplus a year earlier — the deterioration has been steady). US June advance retail sales land at 8:30 AM ET.
Friday Jul 17: Eurozone final June CPI (HICP) at 10:00 AM CET. The flash estimate came in at 2.8% YoY. Any upward revision complicates the ECB’s messaging ahead of the Jul 23 decision. US preliminary July UMich consumer sentiment closes the week.
No ECB, BoE, SNB, or Riksbank rate decisions this week. The ECB meets Jul 22-23; the BoE meets Jul 30. ZEW economic sentiment (Germany) is scheduled for the following Tuesday, Jul 21.
Levels and instruments to watch
The DAX at 25,067 gave back -2.8% in a single week — the sharpest weekly decline in months. The 25,000 round number is the immediate floor; a break below it on weak China GDP or hot US CPI would open the path toward 24,500. The CAC 40 at 8,339 is testing the lower end of its Q2 range, with French luxury names under pressure from both the China growth question and the Kering-led selloff. The FTSE 100 at 10,497 has energy as a buffer — Shell and BP were the standout gainers last week — but the -11.2% AstraZeneca move shows how quickly a single heavyweight can drag the index.
The Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,270 sits -2.2% on the week. The AEX at 1,084 is the index most exposed to ASML’s Wednesday report — a beat on EUV bookings could swing the Dutch benchmark sharply. The SMI at 14,235 (-1.3%) and FTSE MIB at 52,614 (-0.4%) held up relatively better. The IBEX 35 at 19,384 (-2.4%) looks vulnerable to further unwind if Repsol’s +6.2% energy bid fades.
The bias
Defensive tilt into the week. The breadth of last week’s selling — seven of nine major indices red, with decliners spread across healthcare, semis, luxury, chemicals, and autos — signals a broad de-risking, not a sector rotation. That pattern typically resolves in one of two ways: either a catalyst re-establishes a bid (ASML beat, soft US CPI, strong China GDP), or the selling extends into a second week as positioning adjusts ahead of the ECB.
The one thing that flips it: a cool US CPI print on Tuesday combined with an ASML bookings beat on Wednesday. That sequence would compress rate expectations, lift the euro, and give the ECB room to signal further easing on Jul 23. Without it, European equities are likely to trade heavy, with energy and telecoms the relative hiding spots and anything China-exposed under pressure until the GDP number clears.
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