Excellent research. Now let me write the post with confirmed catalysts.

The setup into Aug 10–Aug 14, 2026

Europe closed last week with broad-based gains. The DAX led at 26,319.4, up +2.7%, with SAP alone adding +12.9% after a blowout quarter. The FTSE MIB posted the strongest index gain at +3.0% to 53,717, while the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed +2.6% to 6,523.9. The CAC 40 gained +2.4% to 8,714.9. Even the OMX Stockholm 30, flat on the week at 3,312.3, avoided giving back ground. The outlier was the FTSE 100 at 10,901.1, up only +0.3%, dragged by BP (-6.4%), AstraZeneca (-5.8%), Shell (-3.1%) and BAT (-3.3%) — energy and pharma heavyweights that masked strength elsewhere in UK-listed names like Diageo (+9.5%) and Anglo American (+7.7%). The week ahead is light on Monday-Tuesday, then stacks three consecutive sessions of tier-one releases from Wednesday through Friday.

Aug 10–Aug 14, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Aug 11 — No major European or US releases. Thin liquidity, positioning-only. Summer holiday schedules across southern Europe will keep volumes muted.

Tuesday Aug 12 — The RBA delivers its interest rate decision early in the Asian session. No direct European data, but the decision feeds into global rate-path expectations and the EUR/AUD cross. On Holding (ONON), the Swiss-listed sportswear name, reports earnings — worth watching for European consumer discretionary sentiment.

Wednesday Aug 13 — The first heavyweight session. Germany releases its final July HICP (harmonised CPI) in the European morning. The preliminary reading came in at +2.8% year-on-year with core at +2.4%. Any revision higher or lower will land directly in ECB September pricing, with the next Governing Council meeting scheduled for Sep 9–10 in Berlin. Then at 12:30 GMT, US July CPI drops — the single most market-moving print of the week for every risk asset globally, Europe included. A hot read would pressure rate-cut bets on both sides of the Atlantic; a soft one would extend the rally.

Thursday Aug 14 — The data pile-on continues. The ONS publishes UK Q2 2026 GDP — the first quarterly estimate covering April through June, plus the June monthly figure. This is the first full-quarter growth reading under the current tariff regime and will shape BoE expectations. At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone industrial production for June lands, offering a real-economy cross-check against the PMI surveys. In the US afternoon, July PPI arrives, completing the inflation double-tap that started with CPI the day before. Earnings volume peaks globally with roughly 290 reports scheduled.

Friday Aug 15 — Eurostat publishes the Q2 2026 GDP second estimate for the eurozone, revising the +0.4% quarter-on-quarter flash that printed July 30. Revisions here will feed directly into the ECB’s September staff projections. US retail sales for July and the preliminary August University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey round out the week. Note: Aug 15 is Assumption Day, a public holiday across parts of continental Europe (Italy, France, Spain, Austria) — expect lower volumes and wider spreads on exchanges that remain open.

Levels and instruments to watch

The DAX at 26,319 is trading at record territory. A hold above 26,000 on any Wednesday CPI-driven pullback would confirm the breakout; a close below that level reopens the 25,500 zone where the index consolidated earlier in July. The Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,523.9 is in a similar position — 6,500 is the round-number level that either holds as a new floor or acts as a trap door on a rates repricing.

The FTSE 100 at 10,901 faces a different test. The index is underperforming the continent by a wide margin — up +0.3% last week versus +2.7% for the DAX — weighed by commodity and pharma drag. UK Q2 GDP on Thursday is the catalyst that could narrow or widen that gap. A reading above consensus would give sterling-denominated equities a lift; a miss would reinforce the FTSE’s role as a defensive laggard.

The FTSE MIB at 53,717 was last week’s strongest performer at +3.0%. Italian sovereign spreads and any Eurozone GDP revision that shifts ECB expectations will determine whether that momentum extends.

The bias

The setup is cautiously risk-on. Breadth was strong last week — seven of nine indices gained, with only Stockholm flat. The energy and pharma drag on the FTSE 100 was sector-specific, not a broad de-risking signal. The DAX’s +2.7% gain was led by tech (SAP +12.9%) and telecom (Deutsche Telekom +8.5%), which suggests money is chasing growth, not hiding in defensives.

The risk is the Wednesday-Thursday data gauntlet. US CPI is the single event that could flip the tape from “buy dips” to “sell rips” if the July print reaccelerates. The last two CPI cycles have been benign enough to keep rate-cut expectations alive — a break from that pattern would hit European equities through the rates channel and the EUR/USD cross simultaneously. The one thing that would flip the current lean: a US core CPI month-on-month print above +0.3%, which would send two-year yields higher and compress equity multiples across the continent inside a single session.