Overnight Summary

The dollar ripped higher overnight as a broad commodity liquidation drove risk-sensitive currencies into the floor, with DXY punching back above 100 to settle at 100.10, up 0.67% on the session.

The damage was concentrated in commodity-linked FX. Gold cratered 2.72% to $4,354, WTI crude dropped 3% to $90.25, and copper fell 3.62% to $6.275 — a synchronised sell-off that dragged the Aussie, Kiwi, and Norwegian krone lower in lockstep. NZD/USD led G10 decliners at -1.25%, with AUD/USD close behind at -1.19%. USD/NOK surged 1.5%, making NOK the weakest G10 currency on the session — no surprise given the oil move. The yen told a split story: it gained on risk crosses (NZD/JPY -1.02%, AUD/JPY -0.98%) but couldn’t hold against the dollar bid, with USD/JPY drifting higher to 160.29.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/NOK +1.50% to 9.4485 — The session’s biggest G10 mover. Brent crude down 2.27% and WTI down 3% gutted the krone’s terms-of-trade bid. The pair is pressing toward 9.50, a level that has capped rallies in recent weeks.

NZD/USD -1.25% to 0.5798 — The Kiwi broke below the 0.58 handle as copper’s 3.6% drop hit New Zealand’s dairy-commodity proxy hard. The pair is now trading at its lowest level in several sessions and 0.5750 is the next obvious support.

AUD/USD -1.19% to 0.7050 — Iron ore and copper weakness dragged the Aussie below 0.71. The 0.7000 psychological level is now in play — a clean break would open 0.6950. The commodity sell-off overrode any domestic macro support.

NZD/JPY -1.02% to 92.92 — Double pressure: Kiwi weakness from commodities and yen strength on risk crosses. The pair sliced through 93 and the next support zone sits near 92.50.

AUD/JPY -0.98% to 112.97 — Same dynamic as NZD/JPY. AUD weakness meets yen demand on risk-off. The pair is testing the 113 handle from below — a close under 112.50 would mark a clean breakdown.

USD/SEK +0.91% to 9.4601 — The krona followed NOK lower as the Scandi bloc sold off in sympathy with the broader commodity rout. SEK doesn’t have the direct oil link that NOK does, but risk appetite is the shared driver.

EUR/USD -0.71% to 1.1527 — The euro gave back ground as the dollar bid overwhelmed. The pair is still holding above 1.15 but a sustained move lower targets the 1.1475-1.1500 zone. EUR/CAD fell 0.49% to 1.6047, reflecting relative loonie resilience despite oil’s slide — USD/CAD only moved 0.19%.

GBP/USD -0.68% to 1.3336 — Sterling dropped in line with the euro but slightly outperformed on the EUR/GBP cross, which slipped just 0.13% to 0.8635. Cable’s next support sits at 1.3300.

USD/CHF +0.65% to 0.7962 — The franc weakened against the dollar despite the risk-off tone. In a pure safe-haven bid the franc would rally — the fact it didn’t tells you the dollar was the dominant gravitational force overnight. EUR/CHF was flat at 0.9168, confirming the move was dollar-driven, not euro-driven.

GBP/AUD +0.59% to 1.8931 — Sterling’s relative resilience versus the Aussie’s commodity-driven weakness. The cross is approaching the 1.90 handle for the first time in recent sessions.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens into a hostile tape for the Aussie. AUD/USD at 0.7050 puts the 0.70 round number in direct focus — expect option-related defence there, but the commodity backdrop gives sellers a clear fundamental reason to lean on rallies. AUD/JPY below 113 will attract attention from carry-trade unwind desks.

USD/JPY at 160.29 keeps intervention risk elevated. Japanese authorities have drawn lines in the sand near these levels before, and the weekend overhang adds uncertainty for fresh longs. NZD/USD below 0.58 is technically exposed — any follow-through selling in early Asia could push toward 0.5750 fast in thin Saturday liquidity.

DXY back above 100 is a headwind for all Asian FX. Emerging-market currencies in the region will feel the pressure when Monday’s full session opens.

Bottom Line

This was a dollar-dominance session powered by commodity liquidation, not a subtle rotational move — everything risk-sensitive got hit. The pair to watch heading into next week is AUD/USD at 0.7050: a clean break of 0.70 would confirm a regime shift in commodity FX positioning, while a hold and bounce would suggest the overnight move was overdone.

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