Overnight Summary

The dollar drifted lower overnight, with DXY slipping 0.27% to 99.68 and remaining stuck below the 100 handle. The session’s real story was in commodities: gold ripped 3.06% higher to $4,234 while crude oil cratered — WTI down 4.01% to $86.42, Brent down 4.31% to $89.09. Copper added 2.28% to $6.391, painting a split picture between industrial metals holding firm and energy rolling over hard.

That commodity divergence shaped the FX board cleanly. The Swiss franc caught the gold bid, topping the G10 mover list. Scandinavian currencies rallied on broad dollar weakness. NZD led the commodity-linked bloc, with AUD and CAD both grinding higher but staying inside the quiet zone. No G10 pair broke 0.8% — this was a steady grind rather than a breakout session.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/CHF -0.601% to 0.7945: The session’s biggest G10 move. Gold’s 3% surge pulled the franc higher through the classic safe-haven correlation. USD/CHF is now deep into the 0.79 handle and pressing toward the 0.7900 level that has acted as a floor in recent sessions. With gold above $4,200 and showing no signs of stalling, the path of least resistance stays lower for this pair.

USD/NOK -0.593% to 9.4536: The krone rallied despite oil’s 4% drop — which normally weighs on NOK. That tells you the dollar leg was doing most of the work. Broad USD selling overwhelmed the crude headwind. Watch whether NOK can hold these gains if oil continues sliding; the commodity drag usually catches up within a session or two.

USD/SEK -0.577% to 9.4283: The krona moved in lockstep with NOK, riding the same EUR strength and dollar weakness. EUR/USD pushed to 1.1579 (+0.38%), and that euro bid lifted both Scandis. SEK is back below 9.45 against the dollar.

NZD/USD +0.503% to 0.5837: The kiwi was the best-performing commodity currency, outpacing both AUD (+0.34%) and CAD (barely moved at +0.07% for USD/CAD). Copper’s 2.28% rally gave NZD an edge — New Zealand’s dairy export economy tracks base metals more closely than oil. The 0.5850 level is the next test overhead.

EUR/CAD +0.444% to 1.6165: This cross captured the session’s two themes in one pair — EUR bid on broad dollar softness, CAD underperforming despite being a commodity currency. Oil’s 4% wipeout clipped the loonie’s wings even as EUR found buyers. CAD was the weakest link in the commodity bloc overnight, and EUR/CAD is pushing into the upper end of its recent range.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney and Tokyo open with the dollar on the back foot and gold at fresh highs — that combination tends to keep USD/JPY offered through the Asian morning. Dollar-yen closed at 159.91, just 0.30% lower, but the 159.50 area is nearby support and could come into play if the gold bid extends. Japanese importers may step in on dips toward that level.

AUD/USD at 0.7047 is the local focus. The copper rally is supportive, but AUD underperformed NZD overnight, which suggests the Aussie may need fresh domestic catalysts to break above the 0.7050-0.7070 zone. NZD/USD at 0.5837 has more momentum and could test 0.5850 early in the session.

The oil collapse is the wild card. If Brent stabilises near $89, USD/CAD and USD/NOK may consolidate. If crude slides further into Asia, expect NOK’s overnight gains to face pressure.

Bottom Line

The overnight tone is clear: dollar soft, gold strong, oil weak — and the FX board is pricing all three. The pair drawing the most eyes into Asia is USD/CHF, where the gold-fuelled franc rally has the pair grinding toward 0.7900 with no obvious support in between.

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