Overnight Summary

The dollar index ended Friday’s New York session almost unchanged at 99.81, down just 0.05% — but the headline flatness hid a violent rotation underneath. A metals-versus-oil split tore through the commodity bloc: gold surged 3.7% to $4,240 and copper jumped 3.4%, dragging AUD/USD up 0.78% and NZD/USD up 0.71%. Meanwhile WTI crude collapsed 3.9% to $84.29 and Brent fell 4.1%, punishing the petro-currencies. CAD/JPY dropped half a percent while USD/NOK climbed 0.43% — the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar both left on the wrong side of the commodity divide. USD/SEK printed the session’s biggest G10 move, falling 0.83% to 9.4368 as the krona outperformed across the board.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/SEK (9.4368, −0.83%): The session’s standout. The krona rallied hard against a soft dollar, pushing USD/SEK below 9.45. With DXY barely moving, this was a SEK-specific bid rather than broad dollar weakness. The pair is now testing the lower end of its recent range — a clean break below 9.40 would open a deeper leg lower.

AUD/USD (0.70487, +0.78%): Copper’s 3.4% surge was the fuel here. The Aussie punched back above the 0.7040 handle and is eyeing 0.7080 resistance. Gold’s parallel rally to $4,240 added a secondary tailwind. This was the cleanest risk-on trade of the session — metals up, Aussie up, no ambiguity.

NZD/USD (0.58353, +0.71%): The kiwi rode the same metals wave but with slightly less force than AUD. The pair reclaimed 0.5830 and is approaching the 0.5850 level that capped prior rallies. NZD/JPY’s 0.52% gain to 93.47 confirmed the move was carry-supported, not just dollar-driven.

AUD/JPY (112.90, +0.56%): Risk-on cross of the session. With USD/JPY dead flat at 160.18, the entire AUD/JPY move was AUD strength rather than yen weakness. The pair is pressing into the 113.00 zone — a level that’s acted as a ceiling in recent sessions.

EUR/CAD (1.6178, +0.56%): This cross captured the oil divergence cleanly. EUR barely moved against the dollar (+0.32%), so the EUR/CAD pop was almost entirely CAD softness from the crude collapse. The pair has now climbed above 1.6150 and the next reference is 1.6220.

NZD/JPY (93.471, +0.52%): Another carry cross that benefited from the risk bid. With yen sitting flat and NZD catching the metals tailwind, NZD/JPY pushed above 93.40. The 94.00 handle is the next line of interest.

CAD/JPY (114.52, −0.50%): The mirror image of AUD/JPY. Oil’s collapse hit CAD while yen held steady, pulling the cross down half a percent. CAD/JPY is now testing 114.50 support — a break lower would point toward 114.00.

EUR/AUD (1.6413, −0.48%): Aussie strength priced through the euro cross. EUR/AUD dropped below 1.6450 and is sitting near the bottom of its weekly range at 1.6413. If AUD holds its metals-driven bid, 1.6350 comes into view.

USD/NOK (9.5074, +0.43%): The odd one out in the commodity bloc. Despite copper and gold rallying, NOK’s oil sensitivity dominated — WTI’s 3.9% drop pulled the krone lower and pushed USD/NOK above 9.50. The pair’s divergence from USD/SEK (SEK +0.83%, NOK −0.43%) highlights how oil exposure is overriding the broader Scandinavian risk proxy trade.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens with AUD/USD trading near session highs above 0.7040. The metals rally gives the Aussie a firm footing, but the pair is approaching resistance near 0.7080 where sellers have stepped in before. If copper futures hold their gains through the Asian morning, AUD/USD has room to extend — but any metals fade would stall the move quickly.

USD/JPY at 160.18 was the quietest major of the session, barely budging. Tokyo traders will be watching whether the yen crosses (AUD/JPY 113.00, NZD/JPY 93.50) can hold their overnight gains or if profit-taking pulls them back. The gold-to-$4,240 move could draw some safe-haven yen demand if it continues, which would create a tug-of-war in these crosses.

DXY’s near-zero move is neutral for Asia Pacific FX — neither headwind nor tailwind. The real driver into the Asian open is whether the metals bid sustains or fades.

Bottom Line

Friday’s session was a tale of two commodities — metals up, oil down — and FX priced the split with precision. The pair most in focus heading into Asia is AUD/USD: it’s sitting just below 0.7080 resistance with copper at its back, and the next move will tell us whether this metals rally has legs or runs into weekend profit-taking.

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