Overnight Summary

A commodity washout drove the overnight session, with copper down 3.6%, WTI crude off 2.4%, and gold losing 1.3% — and the FX market priced it accordingly. The dollar firmed modestly, DXY ticking up 0.33% to 101.4, but the real story was the damage in commodity-linked currencies. AUD/USD dropped 1.2% to 0.6919 and NZD/USD fell 1.1% to 0.5672, both tracking the metals selloff almost tick for tick. The Scandinavian bloc joined them lower, with USD/SEK surging 1.5%. Sterling was the outlier — GBP/USD barely moved, finishing at 1.3204, making the pound the strongest G10 currency on a relative basis.

Key Pair Breakdown

AUD/USD (0.6919, −1.20%): The session’s biggest casualty. Copper’s 3.6% plunge was the primary drag — Australia’s terms-of-trade sensitivity to base metals made this a one-way move. The pair sliced through 0.6950 without much of a fight. The 0.6900 handle is now the line in the sand; a break below opens up 0.6850.

NZD/USD (0.5672, −1.10%): Moved in lockstep with its Antipodean cousin, though NZD’s smaller exposure to industrial metals means this was more of a sympathy trade and broad risk-off repricing. Now sitting at its lowest levels in weeks.

USD/SEK (9.7304, +1.48%): The session’s largest G10 move. The krona’s high-beta profile made it vulnerable in a risk-off environment, and falling oil prices added to the pressure on Scandinavian energy-linked economies. Approaching the 9.75 area.

AUD/JPY (111.69, −1.19%): A clean risk-off barometer. With AUD weakening on commodities and JPY holding firm against the dollar, this cross absorbed the full force of both legs. The 111.50 level is nearby support.

NZD/JPY (91.55, −1.09%): Same dynamic as AUD/JPY but amplified by NZD’s thinner liquidity. The pair has been trending lower and the overnight move accelerated that trajectory.

GBP/AUD (1.9074, +1.14%): Sterling’s resilience against GBP/USD flat-lining, combined with AUD’s commodity-driven selloff, pushed this cross sharply higher. Now testing the 1.91 handle for the first time in a while.

EUR/USD (1.1388, −0.65%): Gave back ground against the firmer dollar. The move was orderly, not panicked — more of a repricing lower alongside the broader risk-off tone than any euro-specific catalyst. The 1.1350 area is the next level of interest.

EUR/GBP (0.8618, −0.70%): Euro weakness against a resilient pound. Sterling’s ability to hold its ground while EUR sold off pushed this cross to the lower end of its recent range. Below 0.8600 would be a clean break.

USD/NOK (9.7713, +0.76%): Oil’s 2.4% decline hit the Norwegian krone. Not as dramatic as the SEK move, but the direction was clear. Both Scandis were offered throughout the session.

EUR/JPY (183.84, −0.65%): Tracked EUR/USD lower with USD/JPY essentially unchanged. This cross is a clean read on EUR direction when dollar-yen is parked.

EUR/CHF (0.9212, −0.53%): Franc picked up a modest safe-haven bid as risk assets sold off, pulling this pair lower. The 0.9200 round number is right there.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens into a hostile backdrop for the Aussie. AUD/USD at 0.6919 puts the 0.6900 psychological level directly in play — if copper futures extend lower in Asian hours, that floor could give way quickly. AUD/JPY at 111.69 is similarly exposed. For the Tokyo open, USD/JPY at 161.49 is the pair to watch — it barely moved overnight despite broad dollar strength, which means yen crosses absorbed all the risk-off flow. If the BoJ intervention-threat zone above 160 keeps a lid on USD/JPY, any further commodity weakness will continue to express through AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY rather than dollar-yen itself. The DXY at 101.4 provides a mild headwind for Asian FX, but the real driver this morning is the commodity complex, not the dollar.

Bottom Line

This was a commodity-driven session — the dollar caught a bid, but the real damage was concentrated in AUD, NZD, and the Scandis, all dragged lower by the metals and energy selloff. AUD/USD at 0.6919 is the pair the market is watching into Asia — a break below 0.6900 would open up a fresh leg lower and signal that the commodity unwind has further to run.

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