Overnight Summary

The dollar lost ground across the board overnight as a broad commodity rally handed the advantage to resource-linked currencies. DXY slipped 0.35% to 100.9, pressing further below the 101 handle that had held for most of last week. The move was driven less by any single catalyst and more by the sheer breadth of the commodity bid — WTI crude jumped 2.16% to $79.83, Brent added 2.45% to $85.34, copper surged 2.15%, and gold climbed 1.53% to $4,058. That combination lit up NOK, CAD, NZD, and AUD against the dollar while EUR, GBP, and CHF barely moved. The Norwegian krone was the standout, with USD/NOK dropping 1.14% to 9.668 on the oil tailwind. On the crosses, NZD/JPY ripped 1.14% higher to 94.265 as the kiwi caught a bid from the risk-on tone while yen stayed soft.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/NOK (9.668, -1.14%) — The session’s biggest G10 move. Brent’s 2.45% rally is the straightforward driver here — Norway’s petroleum revenues track crude almost mechanically, and a $85+ Brent print gives the krone real fundamental support. USD/NOK is now testing the 9.65-9.70 zone that acted as a floor in early July. A sustained break below 9.65 opens the path toward 9.55.

NZD/JPY (94.265, +1.14%) — This cross captured both ends of the overnight risk mood: NZD catching the commodity updraft while JPY stayed offered in a session where safe havens were ignored despite gold’s rally. The pair is back above 94 for the first time in several sessions. Resistance sits around 94.80-95.00.

NZD/USD (0.5814, +0.95%) — The kiwi posted the largest outright gain against the dollar among the majors. Copper’s 2.15% surge is doing the heavy lifting — New Zealand’s dairy export economy correlates less directly than AUD, but the broader risk-on tone dragged NZD higher. The pair is pushing into the 0.5810-0.5830 area where sellers emerged last week.

CAD/JPY (115.32, +0.92%) — Another expression of the commodity-strength-versus-yen-softness trade. WTI above $79.80 gives CAD fundamental backing, and with USD/JPY holding near 162.17, the cross had room to run. The 115.50 level is the next overhead test.

USD/CAD (1.4061, -0.73%) — Oil did the work here. Both WTI and Brent rallying over 2% pulled the loonie higher, pushing USD/CAD back below 1.41. The pair is approaching the 1.4030-1.4050 support band. A clean break lower would mark a fresh leg in the recent CAD recovery.

EUR/CAD (1.606, -0.57%) — CAD strength wasn’t limited to the dollar cross. EUR/CAD dropped as the euro sat mostly idle (EUR/USD only managed +0.20%) while the loonie ran. The 1.60 round number is the obvious target if oil stays bid.

AUD/JPY (113.00, +0.56%) and AUD/USD (0.6973, +0.44%) — The Aussie participated in the commodity rally but underperformed NZD and CAD. Copper’s 2.15% gain should have delivered more, which suggests some positioning resistance near the 0.70 handle in AUD/USD. That level remains the key gate — AUD/USD has failed there multiple times recently. AUD/JPY at 113 is mid-range and less interesting technically.

GBP/AUD (1.9196, -0.44%) — Sterling was flat on the session (GBP/USD +0.001%), so this move is entirely an AUD story. The cross drifting below 1.92 reflects the relative underperformance of GBP in a risk-on session where commodity exposure was rewarded.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens with AUD/USD sitting just below the 0.70 handle — the level that has capped rallies repeatedly. If the overnight commodity bid carries through to Asian hours and copper holds above $6.35, the Aussie has a shot at testing 0.70 properly. Failure there again would reinforce the range trade.

For Tokyo, USD/JPY at 162.17 is the quiet one to watch. Yen barely reacted overnight despite gold’s 1.5% rally — the traditional safe-haven correlation is absent. That leaves USD/JPY anchored near multi-decade highs. Any verbal intervention noise from Japanese officials could jolt the crosses, particularly NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY which are both extended after nearly 1% overnight gains.

DXY below 101 is a mild headwind for the dollar in Asia. If the commodity bid fades, the dollar could recover toward 101.2, but the overnight tone favours sellers on USD rallies.

Bottom Line

Overnight FX was a commodity-currency story — NOK, NZD, and CAD all benefited from a broad raw-materials rally while the dollar drifted lower with no clear catalyst of its own. The pair most likely to force a decision in the next 24 hours is AUD/USD at 0.70 — either it clears and the commodity-currency rally extends, or it rejects again and caps the overnight move.

Read next: FX Markets · How to Read the COT Report · What Is a Bond?