Overnight Summary

The dollar got sold across the board overnight, with DXY dropping 0.43% to 100.5 as risk appetite dominated the session. Every G10 currency gained against the greenback — nine pairs posted moves above 0.7%, which is unusual breadth for a single session. Commodity-linked currencies led the charge: NZD/USD surged 1.5%, GBP/USD jumped 1.4%, and USD/NOK fell 1.6%. The move had clear commodity backing — WTI crude rallied 1.1% to $80.24, Brent added 1.1% to $85.63, and copper climbed 0.8% to $6.383. Gold was a relative non-event at +0.14%, which tells you this was a risk-on move, not a safety bid. The yen was the notable laggard, barely firming against the dollar while every JPY cross ripped higher.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/NOK (9.6244, -1.57%): The session’s biggest mover. NOK tracked crude oil higher and benefited from the broad dollar unwind. A 1.5%+ move in a single session is outsized for this pair — it’s now testing whether the 9.60 handle holds as support.

NZD/USD (0.58503, +1.51%): The kiwi was the top G10 performer against the dollar, riding the commodity complex higher. The pair cleared 0.5800 with conviction. NZD/JPY (+1.32% to 94.81) confirms the move was driven by NZD strength, not just USD weakness.

GBP/USD (1.3538, +1.42%): Cable punched through 1.3500 and held above it. EUR/GBP falling 0.7% to 0.8468 shows sterling outperforming the euro — this wasn’t just a dollar story. GBP/JPY at 219.39 (+1.2%) adds to the picture of genuine pound demand.

USD/SEK (9.5857, -1.33%): The krona mirrored NOK’s strength, both Scandis moving in lockstep as the dollar weakened. The pair is pressing toward the 9.50 level.

USD/CHF (0.80405, -1.31%): The franc gained over 1.3% against the dollar, pushing USD/CHF well below 0.8100. With EUR/CHF also dropping 0.5%, the franc was bid on its own merits — not just riding the dollar down. GBP/CHF barely moved (+0.07%), showing how evenly matched sterling and franc demand were.

AUD/USD (0.70077, +1.29%): The Aussie reclaimed the 0.7000 handle, backed by copper’s 0.84% gain. AUD/JPY at 113.48 (+1.0%) extended the move. EUR/AUD falling 0.58% confirms the Aussie outperformed on the crosses, not just against the dollar.

USD/CAD (1.4038, -0.78%): The loonie benefited from crude’s rally but lagged the commodity bloc. CAD underperformed AUD and NZD — the pair is testing whether 1.4000 acts as a floor.

EUR/USD (1.1469, +0.75%): The euro gained but was a middle-of-the-pack performer, which is why EUR crosses mostly went against it. EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, and EUR/CHF all fell, while EUR/JPY (+0.52%) and EUR/CAD (-0.08%) were mixed. The euro rode the dollar down but generated no independent bid.

USD/JPY (162.13, -0.19%): The standout underperformer. While the dollar lost ground everywhere else, USD/JPY barely moved. That pushed every JPY cross sharply higher — NZD/JPY +1.3%, GBP/JPY +1.2%, AUD/JPY +1.0%, CAD/JPY +0.6%, EUR/JPY +0.5%. The yen absorbed none of the risk-on flow, which keeps it as the funding currency of choice.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens into a tailwind. AUD/USD above 0.7000 with copper firm gives the Aussie momentum, and there’s no obvious reason for the bid to fade in early Asia. The pair to watch is whether 0.7000 holds as new support or gets faded back below.

Tokyo opens with USD/JPY pinned near 162 despite dollar weakness everywhere else. That divergence is the session’s big question — if the dollar selling finally catches up to USD/JPY, the JPY crosses that ripped overnight (NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY) could reverse hard. If USD/JPY stays anchored, those crosses hold.

DXY at 100.5 is a headwind for any dollar recovery in Asia. The breadth of the selling — all nine G10 pairs moving in one direction — suggests this isn’t a single-catalyst move that reverses easily. AP exporters will be watching the AUD and NZD levels for hedging decisions.

Bottom Line

This was a clean, broad dollar sell-off with commodity currencies in the driver’s seat and the yen left behind. The pair most traders are watching into Asia is USD/JPY at 162 — it’s the last holdout against the dollar rout, and if it breaks lower, the overnight JPY cross gains unwind fast.

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