Overnight Summary

Commodities ran the FX session overnight — copper surged 3.66%, gold pushed through $4,080, and Brent crude cleared $91 — but the dollar story was secondary. DXY added a quiet 0.21% to 101.2, a marginal bid that masked the real action underneath: the Australian dollar tore higher on the copper move while sterling crumbled across the board.

GBP/AUD posted the session’s largest G10 move, dropping 0.92% to 1.9085 as the Aussie caught a tailwind from the industrial metals complex and the pound found no friends. AUD/JPY climbed 0.72% to 114.22, a classic risk-on cross confirming the pro-cyclical tone. Meanwhile, USD/CAD’s 0.61% rise to 1.4104 stood out as an oddity — oil was bid but the loonie couldn’t capitalise.

Key Pair Breakdown

GBP/AUD — 1.9085, down 0.92%. The session’s standout. Sterling weakness met AUD strength head-on, and the cross paid the price. With copper posting its best session in weeks and the pound offering nothing in return, GBP/AUD sliced through the 1.91 handle. The pair is now testing levels not seen in recent sessions, and a sustained break below 1.9050 would open room toward 1.8950.

AUD/JPY — 114.22, up 0.72%. The risk barometer of the G10 space printed a clean move higher. Copper at +3.66% is the kind of input that lights up AUD crosses, and with the yen continuing to soften (USD/JPY nudging 163.15), AUD/JPY had everything in its favour. The 114.50 level is the next resistance to watch — a break there puts 115.00 back in play.

EUR/AUD — 1.6269, down 0.64%. Another AUD-strength expression. EUR/USD was only marginally lower at 1.1403, so the EUR/AUD move was almost entirely driven by the AUD leg. The cross is compressing toward the 1.6200 area, which has acted as a floor in recent weeks.

USD/CAD — 1.4104, up 0.61%. The puzzler of the session. WTI rallied 1.57% and Brent surged 2.49%, yet the Canadian dollar weakened. When CAD can’t rally on an oil bid of that size, it tells you something else is weighing — likely broad USD demand overriding the commodity input. The 1.4150 level is the near-term ceiling; a failure to break it could see a snap-back toward 1.4050 if oil holds its gains.

GBP/USD — 1.3377, down 0.51%. Sterling was the session’s weakest major. The 0.51% decline wasn’t dramatic in isolation, but combined with GBP/AUD and a grinding EUR/GBP move higher to 0.8518, the picture is clear — sellers had the pound in their sights. The 1.3350 level is the immediate support; below that, 1.3300 comes into focus.

USD/CHF — 0.81212, up 0.46%. The franc gave ground despite gold’s $4,080+ print, which is unusual. In a session where gold rallied 1.79%, you’d typically expect CHF to hold firm. The fact it didn’t suggests the move was dollar-led rather than a safe-haven trade. Watch the 0.8150 level — a push above it would confirm the short-term CHF softening trend.

Asian Session Setup

The Sydney open inherits a strong AUD hand. Copper’s 3.66% rally is the kind of move that tends to carry momentum into the Asian metals session, and if it holds, AUD/USD above 0.7000 looks well-supported. AUD/JPY at 114.22 is the cross to watch — it’s sitting just below a resistance zone, and any follow-through from the Asian commodity desks could push it toward 114.50.

USD/JPY at 163.15 continues to drift higher, and Tokyo traders will be alert to any verbal intervention signals from Japanese officials as the pair grinds toward the 163.50 area. The yen’s weakness is broad-based — EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY all reflect a currency that’s being sold against everything.

DXY’s modest bid is a mild headwind for Asian FX, but the commodity strength should offset that for the Aussie and the kiwi. The NZD was quiet overnight at 0.58336 — it may play catch-up if copper holds.

Bottom Line

Commodities drove the overnight session and the AUD was the main beneficiary, while sterling took the hit as the G10’s worst performer. AUD/JPY at 114.22 is the pair most likely to move at the Asian open — it’s sitting right at a decision point, with copper momentum and yen weakness both arguing for higher.

Read next: FX Markets · How to Read the COT Report · What Is a Bond?