Overnight Summary

The yen steamrolled everything overnight. Every JPY cross on the board printed deep red, with CAD/JPY down 3.5% and EUR/JPY losing 3.1% in what looks like a textbook carry-trade unwind. USD/JPY dropped 1.7% to 157.40, dragging the dollar index below the 100 handle to 99.80.

Outside the yen story, the session was broadly risk-on for commodity-linked currencies. AUD/USD climbed nearly 1% to 0.7025, NZD/USD rallied 1.3% to 0.5877, and USD/NOK fell 1.4% to 9.4625 — the last one turbo-charged by a 3.8% spike in WTI crude to $86.80. Gold was a non-event at $4,099, flat on the day. Copper added 1%, giving AUD an extra nudge. The paradox of the session: risk appetite was strong enough to bid up oil, copper, and the antipodeans, yet the yen rallied as if the world were ending.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/JPY (157.40, −1.74%) — The anchor move of the session. A near-2% single-day drop in USD/JPY signals heavy yen demand, likely driven by positioning unwinds rather than a single catalyst. The pair has broken below the 158 handle and 157.00 becomes the next line of defense for yen bears.

CAD/JPY (112.27, −3.49%) — The biggest loser on the board. CAD got no shelter from WTI’s surge because the yen bid overwhelmed everything. A 3.5% move in a G10 cross is rare outside intervention events. The 110 level is the next structural support.

EUR/JPY (181.49, −3.08%) — Fell hard through 183 and 182 without pausing. The 180 round number is the obvious target for continuation and will be tested early in the Asian session if the yen bid holds.

GBP/JPY (212.24, −2.77%) — Sterling couldn’t escape despite posting gains against the dollar. The carry unwind hit GBP/JPY just as hard, and 210 is the level to watch on further yen strength.

AUD/JPY (110.56, −2.70%) — AUD gained nearly 1% against the dollar but still lost 2.7% against the yen. That tells you the scale of JPY buying. Copper’s 1% rise and AUD/USD strength were irrelevant here. The 110 handle is holding by a thread.

NZD/JPY (92.50, −2.36%) — Same story as the Aussie cross. NZD was the session’s best performer against the dollar (+1.3%) yet still shed 2.4% against JPY. Sub-92 opens the door to 90.

USD/NOK (9.4625, −1.36%) — The oil story. WTI’s 3.8% rally gave the krone a clean tailwind, and a softer dollar did the rest. NOK was the best-performing European currency on the session.

NZD/USD (0.5877, +1.29%) — Led the antipodean charge higher. The kiwi benefited from broad dollar weakness and possibly some short-covering. The 0.5900 level is the near-term resistance.

AUD/USD (0.7025, +0.95%) — Copper strength and dollar softness pushed the Aussie back above 0.7000. That round number now flips to support.

GBP/USD (1.3487, +0.89%) — Cable pushed to the upper end of its recent range. A clean break above 1.3500 would be the first test for Asia.

USD/CHF (0.8074, −0.74%) — The franc rode the safe-haven bid alongside the yen, though with less force. Below 0.8050 would mark fresh territory for franc bulls.

EUR/USD (1.1527, +0.52%) — A solid move higher but relatively modest given the DXY drop — most of the dollar weakness was expressed through JPY and the commodity bloc rather than the euro.

EUR/AUD (1.6410, −0.41%) — The flip side of AUD outperformance. The Aussie gained ground against the euro, reflecting the commodity-currency bid.

Asian Session Setup

Tokyo is the session to watch. USD/JPY at 157.40 after a 1.7% drop will invite immediate follow-through interest — or a sharp short-covering bounce if the move was positioning-driven rather than fundamental. The 157.00 level is the line: a break below likely accelerates the carry unwind into EUR/JPY 180 and AUD/JPY 110.

For Sydney, AUD/USD holding above the 0.7000 reclaim is constructive. Copper’s 1% overnight gain and a softer DXY give the Aussie a tailwind into the local session. AUD/JPY is the cross that complicates the picture — if the yen bid persists, AUD gains against USD could be capped by cross-selling pressure.

The DXY sub-100 print is a tailwind for Asian FX broadly, but any reversal in JPY flows would dominate price action across the board.

Bottom Line

This was a yen session, full stop — a broad carry unwind that printed 2-3% moves across every JPY cross while commodity currencies rallied on the other side. USD/JPY at 157.40 is the pair the market is watching into Tokyo, and whether it holds 157 or breaks will set the tone for Monday’s G10 complex.

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