Overnight Summary

The yen was the clear punching bag overnight as risk appetite ripped through G10 FX, sending every JPY cross sharply higher while the dollar index barely moved at 98.84 (-0.06%). This was a pure risk-on/safe-haven-off session — JPY and CHF both sold off while commodity-linked currencies surged on the back of a metals rally that saw gold spike 3.2% to $4,662 and copper jump 1.9% to $6.58. NZD/JPY led the board at +1.17%, followed by AUD/JPY at +1.10%. The Antipodeans posted the strongest outright gains against the dollar too, with NZD/USD up 0.78% and AUD/USD up 0.70%. Oil was mixed — WTI dropped 1.35% while Brent held flat — keeping CAD gains more modest on the crosses.

Key Pair Breakdown

NZD/JPY (+1.17% to 95.02) — The session’s biggest mover. The kiwi caught a bid from the broader commodity rally while the yen folded under risk-on flows. NZD/JPY is now pressing against the 95 handle, a level that has acted as resistance in recent weeks.

AUD/JPY (+1.10% to 113.96) — Copper’s 1.9% surge gave the Aussie extra fuel on top of the JPY weakness. AUD/JPY tagged 113.96, pushing back toward the 114 figure. Gold’s move adds a secondary tailwind through Australia’s mining exposure.

NZD/USD (+0.78% to 0.5982) — The kiwi outperformed its Aussie neighbour against the dollar. NZD/USD is back above 0.5975 and eyeing the 0.60 round number, which will be the obvious near-term level to watch.

GBP/JPY (+0.72% to 216.79) — Sterling rode the JPY weakness higher, with cable itself gaining 0.35%. GBP/JPY above 216.50 keeps the pair in the upper end of its recent range.

CAD/JPY (+0.70% to 115.41) — CAD gained despite WTI’s 1.35% drop, suggesting the JPY leg was doing most of the work here. USD/CAD fell 0.34% to 1.3763, giving CAD a modest bid, but the energy backdrop is a headwind if oil stays soft.

AUD/USD (+0.70% to 0.7175) — Copper and gold both rallying gave the Aussie a dual tailwind. AUD/USD is back above 0.7170 and approaching the 0.72 handle. EUR/AUD’s 0.66% drop to 1.628 confirms the Aussie outperformance wasn’t just a USD story.

GBP/CHF (+0.68% to 1.0923) — The franc weakened alongside the yen in the safe-haven unwind. EUR/CHF’s 0.42% rise to 0.9351 tells the same story — this was broad CHF selling, not GBP-specific strength.

USD/NOK (-0.63% to 9.285) — The Norwegian krone rallied despite WTI weakness, likely catching a bid from the broader risk-on tone and copper’s strength. Brent’s flat session (vs WTI’s drop) may also be helping — Norway’s benchmark is Brent-linked.

EUR/JPY (+0.45% to 185.59) — The euro’s gain against the yen was more muted than the commodity bloc’s, reflecting EUR/USD’s near-flat session at 1.1678. The JPY leg drove this cross; the euro was a passenger.

EUR/CHF (+0.42% to 0.9351) — Both safe havens sold off, but CHF weakened more than EUR gained. The pair is grinding back above 0.935 after recent range compression.

Asian Session Setup

Sydney opens with AUD/USD at 0.7175 and AUD/JPY near 114 — both at levels where sellers have stepped in before. The metals rally gives the Aussie a strong fundamental tailwind, but the question is whether gold’s 3.2% spike holds or gets faded into Asian hours. If copper stays bid above $6.55, that’s supportive for AUD on dips.

Tokyo opens to a weaker yen across the board. USD/JPY at 158.86 (+0.37%) puts it back in the zone where verbal intervention noise has surfaced previously. Watch whether Japanese officials comment on the yen’s weakness — any jawboning could snap the JPY crosses lower quickly given how extended the overnight moves were.

DXY at 98.84 is not offering directional pressure either way. The dollar’s flatness means AP FX will be driven by local flows and whether the risk-on tone sustains through the Asian morning.

Bottom Line

This was a clean risk-on session — yen and franc sold, commodity currencies bought, metals ripping. The one pair to watch into the Asian open is AUD/JPY at 114: it sits at the intersection of the copper rally, the yen selloff, and the level where the Tokyo session will decide if this move has legs or gets clipped.

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