Asian Session Summary

The dollar opened the week dead flat. DXY nudged to 99 with a negligible +0.09% gain, leaving the greenback range-bound despite Friday’s hawkish Fed repricing and Jerome Powell’s weekend warning that politicising the central bank erodes credibility. The real story out of Asia was commodities: WTI crude ripped 3.65% to $90.55 and Brent jumped 2.25% to $94.12, dragging copper up 1.82% alongside it. Gold gave back Friday’s gains, slipping 0.76% to $4,526 as firm yields and a stable dollar sapped safe-haven demand. That commodity impulse fed straight into the Antipodean bloc — NZD/USD led G10 with a +0.40% gain, AUD/USD followed at +0.25%, and AUD/JPY pushed through 114.50. The yen weakened across the board, with USD/JPY creeping back above 159.40 and NZD/JPY printing the session’s biggest cross move at +0.54%.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1660: Barely moved overnight (+0.065%), stuck in a 23-pip range between 1.1646 and 1.1669. Headlines frame it well: ECB hike expectations are propping the euro while hawkish Fed repricing and geopolitical risk cap the upside. The 1.1650 level has acted as a magnet for three sessions. A break above the 1.1669 Asian high opens a run toward 1.1700; failure to hold 1.1646 targets 1.1600. London flows will need a catalyst to break this compression.

GBP/USD — 1.3461: Cable is quietly firm, up 0.12% and holding above 1.3450. The Asian range topped out at 1.3477 — a clean break there puts 1.3500 in play, a level the pair hasn’t sustained since the post-BoE rally faded. Support sits at the session low near 1.3446. EUR/GBP drifting lower (-0.057%) suggests sterling is outperforming the euro, which tends to carry through London when UK-specific flows pick up.

NZD/USD — 0.5969: The session’s biggest G10 mover, up nearly 40 pips to 0.5969 after printing a high of 0.5990. The 0.6000 handle is the obvious target and the obvious barrier — round-number resistance with likely option interest sitting there. The oil and copper surge supports the broader commodity-FX bid, but kiwi tends to fade into London if the risk-on impulse doesn’t find fresh buyers. Watch for a pullback toward 0.5968 as a re-entry level if the bid holds.

AUD/JPY — 114.49: Risk barometer for the session. Up 0.38% with a clean grind from 114.17 to 114.65. The cross captures both the commodity-linked AUD bid and broad yen weakness. The 114.65 high is immediate resistance; a push through it targets 115.00. If London risk sentiment sours, the 114.17 low is the first support that matters.

USD/CAD — 1.3813: The odd one out. CAD should be catching a bid from the oil surge, but USD/CAD is up 0.22% — the loonie is underperforming. The pair pushed to 1.3820 before fading. This divergence between crude and CAD often corrects during London hours when energy desks get active. A break below 1.3785 (Asian low) would confirm crude is finally pulling CAD stronger; holding above 1.3820 suggests the USD bid is structural, not just positioning noise.

London Calendar Watch

It’s the first trading day of June and the week builds toward US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday — early-week positioning tends to be cautious ahead of NFP. Monday’s European calendar is typically light on tier-1 releases, but final manufacturing PMIs for the eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK are due in the London morning window. These are second readings so surprises are rare, but any revision that shifts ECB pricing will move EUR/USD out of its compression. Beyond scheduled data, Powell’s weekend comments about Fed independence may draw follow-up commentary from ECB officials — watch for any remarks on rate trajectory that could jolt EUR crosses.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD looks like a fade-the-range session unless PMIs deliver a surprise — lean neutral between 1.1646 and 1.1670 with a slight upside bias if ECB hawks get airtime. GBP/USD has the better momentum setup; a clean break of 1.3477 targets 1.3500 and sterling’s relative strength over the euro supports the bid. The commodity bloc deserves attention — AUD and NZD are riding a genuine commodity impulse from oil and copper, and any pullback toward Asian session lows looks like a dip-buy if risk appetite holds. The USD/CAD divergence from crude is the London session’s most actionable anomaly; watch for it to close. DXY at 99 is directionless — the dollar needs NFP week catalysts to pick a side.

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