Asian Session Summary

The dollar index drifted lower to 99.08, shedding 0.12% — but the move masked a messy cross-currency session underneath. The real story was CHF weakness across the board and a sharp NZD selloff that had nothing to do with the greenback. Gold ripped nearly 2% to $4,562, its strongest overnight bid in weeks, while crude went the other way — WTI down 1.5% below $89.50 as Middle East peace-talk headlines took some geopolitical premium out. Copper climbed 1.78%, giving commodity-bloc currencies a theoretical tailwind that only AUD managed to capture, and barely. The yen stayed soft against everything, with USD/JPY grinding back above 159.50 despite capped gains below 159.95 per UOB’s morning note.

Key Pairs for London

NZD/USD — 0.5938 (▼ 0.73%)
The session’s clear underperformer. Kiwi sold off from 0.5946 through the 0.5920 handle before finding a floor at 0.5921. No single headline drove it — this looks like position liquidation ahead of the month’s first full trading week. The Asian low at 0.5921 is the line to hold; a break opens the door toward 0.5900 round-number support. Sellers have had it their way — any London bounce needs to reclaim 0.5946 to neutralise the downside bias.

GBP/CHF — 1.0575 (▲ 0.57%)
The biggest gainer in G10 crosses. Sterling strength met CHF weakness head-on. The pair hit 1.0589 before pulling back — that high is the immediate resistance test for London. Swiss trade surplus data for April came in steady but failed to stem the franc’s slide. With GBP/USD holding above 1.3450 and cable grinding toward 1.3482, any continuation in sterling demand keeps GBP/CHF bid above 1.0570.

EUR/USD — 1.1652 (▲ 0.03%)
Quiet in a 23-pip range between 1.1632 and 1.1655. That’s a compression that typically resolves on the London open — especially on a Tuesday when European flow picks up after Monday’s positioning. The pair is sitting right at the top of its overnight range, which means London either pushes through 1.1655 for a run at 1.1680, or fades back toward 1.1630. DXY softness gives a slight tilt to the upside.

GBP/USD — 1.3473 (▲ 0.16%)
Cable outperformed EUR/USD by a factor of five overnight — the EUR/GBP cross dropping 0.16% to 0.8640 tells the same story. Sterling is catching a bid on its own merit. The 1.3482 high is immediate resistance; above there, 1.3500 is the psychological magnet. Support sits at the overnight low of 1.3452.

USD/JPY — 159.69 (▲ 0.21%)
Grinding higher but staying below the 159.75 overnight cap. UOB’s note flagging losses capped below 159.95 aligns with what the tape is showing — buyers are present but not aggressive. London participants will watch whether the pair tests 160.00. A break and hold above 159.95 would be the first real statement; otherwise this is range-bound drift between 159.50 and 159.75.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday’s European session is light on tier-one data. The main watch is for any ECB commentary filtering through — with EUR/CHF printing its tightest range in weeks, any hawkish or dovish lean from Governing Council members could jolt the cross. UK manufacturing PMI final readings are typical for the first Tuesday of the month and could give cable a directional push if they deviate from the flash estimate. Beyond scheduled data, oil traders will monitor any follow-up headlines on Middle East peace talks after WTI’s overnight drop — energy-sensitive crosses like CAD/JPY and NOK/SEK tend to react on the London handover when crude repositions.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans mildly bid on DXY weakness but needs to clear 1.1655 to confirm — the overnight compression makes a breakout trade more attractive than a fade. GBP/USD has the stronger hand: cable’s 0.16% outperformance and the EUR/GBP decline suggest sterling-specific demand, not just dollar softness. On the commodity bloc, copper’s 1.78% gain gives AUD a floor but the pair barely moved overnight — that’s a disconnect London could resolve. NZD remains the short, and the gold surge argues for continued mild USD pressure through the European morning.

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