Asian Session Summary

The dollar leaked lower through Asian trade, with the DXY index slipping 0.16% to 99.25 as traders trimmed long-dollar exposure ahead of today’s US nonfarm payrolls. The move was broadest against the Swiss franc and Swedish krona — USD/CHF dropped 0.40% and USD/SEK shed nearly half a percent — while the yen stayed remarkably quiet with USD/JPY pinned to a tight 13-pip range around 159.95. Commodities offered a mixed read: gold bid up 0.31% to $4,490 in a mild safe-haven lean, while WTI crude fell 0.71% and copper slid 1.49%. The AUD held flat despite the commodity weakness, suggesting the move in metals was positioning-driven rather than a fresh macro impulse.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1636 (+0.23%)
The euro has been the session’s cleanest mover, grinding higher from 1.1613 toward the 1.1640 session high. The pair is testing the upper end of this week’s range, and a clean print above 1.1640 opens room toward 1.1660. Downside support rests at 1.1613 — that’s today’s Asian low and the level to hold for the bid to stay intact. Pre-NFP flows could either extend the move or stall it at the figure, so watch for volume confirmation on any break.

USD/CHF — 0.7879 (-0.40%)
The standout underperformer for the dollar. CHF strength into Friday suggests real-money flows and possible haven demand ahead of the payrolls print. The pair has already broken below 0.7890 and printed as low as 0.7872. If London sellers lean in, the 0.7850 handle becomes the next target. A reclaim of 0.7896 (today’s high) would signal the move is running out of steam.

GBP/USD — 1.3446 (+0.14%)
Sterling is firmer on the day but carrying baggage — headlines flag a second straight weekly loss with Middle East tensions weighing on risk appetite. Today’s session high at 1.3449 is the immediate ceiling. A push through opens 1.3470-80, but failure here likely sees cable drift back toward 1.3417 support. The EUR/GBP cross is flat at 0.8652, so this is a USD story, not a sterling one.

USD/SEK — 9.3419 (-0.48%)
The krona is the strongest G10 currency today, with USD/SEK dropping nearly half a percent from 9.3917 highs to test 9.3263. The range is wide — 65 pips already covered — and London could extend the SEK bid if European equity futures open firm. A break below 9.3260 targets 9.3000. Reversal risk sits at the 9.3600 mid-range.

AUD/USD — 0.7135 (flat)
Holding just above 0.7109 support despite copper falling 1.5% and oil sliding. The UOB note flags 0.7120 as a pressure point, and the pair has bounced off 0.7109 today. The divergence between AUD and commodities is notable — either the Aussie catches down or metals stabilize. A break below 0.7109 puts 0.7080 in play; topside is capped at 0.7138 (today’s high).

London Calendar Watch

The headline event is US nonfarm payrolls, due in the afternoon London session. Pre-NFP positioning typically makes the first two hours of London trade range-bound before directional bets get placed. The US-Canada dual employment release (Canadian jobs data drops simultaneously) adds a wrinkle for USD/CAD, which is already compressed near 1.3890. Beyond that, Friday London sessions tend to see lighter institutional flow as desks square into the weekend, particularly with Middle East geopolitical risk lingering in the background as the headlines suggest.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD has the cleaner setup — the bid from Asia looks real, and a hold above 1.1613 keeps the pair pointed toward a test of 1.1660 into the London morning. GBP/USD is trickier; the weekly loss and geopolitical drag argue for a defensive lean unless cable can clear 1.3450 with conviction. The commodity bloc is worth watching for a catch-down trade — AUD/USD holding flat while copper drops 1.5% is an unstable divergence that often resolves lower. The DXY tone is soft but not broken; below 99.00 would change the character, and today’s payrolls print will determine whether the dollar’s Friday weakness becomes a trend or a head-fake.

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