Asian Session Summary

The Asian FX session delivered a clear commodity split. Oil’s 2.3-2.5% slide on renewed US-Iran deal speculation hammered the petro-currencies — USD/NOK rallied 0.7% and USD/CAD ground higher to 1.3988 — while metals-linked pairs caught a bid. AUD/USD was the standout, climbing 0.58% to 0.7035 as copper futures added 1.73%. Gold’s 2.6% surge toward $4,196 pulled CHF higher across the board, with USD/CHF dropping 0.45% to test below 0.7964. DXY itself barely moved, up a token 0.045% at 99.9, but the flat index reading disguises real divergence underneath. The yen stayed range-bound, USD/JPY drifting lower to 160.27 on mild safe-haven interest but unable to sustain a break below 159.90.

Key Pairs for London

AUD/USD — 0.7035
The session’s strongest G10 mover. Copper’s rally is doing the heavy lifting, and the pair has already tested 0.7055 before fading. That high is the first level to watch — a clean break above opens a run toward 0.7075. Downside support sits at the session low of 0.7024. With European equity futures likely to gap higher on the oil drop (Deutsche Bank flagged the equities-rates repricing), risk appetite should keep the bid tone intact for AUD into London.

USD/NOK — 9.5337
NOK is the session’s biggest loser, up 0.71% on the cross as Brent dropped 2.47%. The pair pushed to 9.5403 but stalled — that’s the immediate ceiling. The Asian low printed at 9.4498, a full 900 pips below, which tells you how volatile this pair has been. If oil stabilises near $88 Brent during European hours, NOK could find a floor. If US-Iran headlines escalate further and Brent breaks below $88, the krone has more to give.

EUR/USD — 1.1570
Holding gains from overnight but running out of momentum near 1.1589. The pair is stuck in a tight 28-pip range (1.1561–1.1589), which is compression ahead of London. A break above the session high opens 1.1600 — a round number that has acted as a magnet this week. Downside, 1.1560 is the pivot. The headline that euro “edged down from weekly highs” on US-Iran deal speculation suggests the market is treating any deal as marginally USD-positive, which could cap rallies.

USD/CHF — 0.7964
The Swiss franc is quietly having the best day among the G10 safe havens, outperforming even the yen. Gold’s surge is the tell — when gold rallies 2.6% and CHF strengthens 0.45%, that’s classic haven demand despite the “risk-on” equity read. The session low at 0.7939 is the level. A break below puts sub-0.79 handles in play. Resistance at 0.7975 capped the bounce.

GBP/USD — 1.3396
Cable is drifting higher but lagging EUR/USD — EUR/GBP is flat at 0.8633, meaning sterling isn’t doing anything independent. The session high at 1.3426 is the number to beat. A failure there likely sends the pair back to the 1.3385 low. Friday London sessions tend to see GBP volume thin out after the morning fix, so the first two hours matter most.

London Calendar Watch

Friday’s European calendar is light on tier-one prints, which puts the focus squarely on headline flow. The US-Iran deal narrative is the dominant macro driver — any official commentary from either side during European hours will move oil and by extension CAD, NOK, and the broader risk complex. Gold’s sharp move may attract ECB commentary on inflation expectations if any Governing Council members are speaking today. UK data is thin for a Friday, so GBP will likely take its cues from EUR/USD direction and any shifts in gilt yields rather than domestic releases.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is mildly constructive — the oil drop is net positive for European terms of trade, and if equity futures hold their overnight gains, 1.1590-1.1600 is reachable in the first London hour. GBP/USD follows but with less conviction; cable needs a GBP-specific catalyst to outperform. The commodity-linked divergence should persist: AUD and NZD can extend gains if copper holds, while CAD and NOK remain vulnerable to any further oil weakness. DXY at 99.9 is a coin-flip — the index is being pulled in opposite directions by CHF strength and CAD weakness, and it won’t resolve until the market decides whether the US-Iran story is USD-positive (geopolitical de-escalation) or USD-negative (lower oil = lower inflation = less Fed).

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