Asian Session Summary

The dollar opened the week on the back foot. DXY printed 99.53 heading into the London handoff, down 0.22% and struggling to reclaim the 99.60 level that had been acting as near-term support. The catalyst was clear: weekend headlines confirming a US-Iran peace deal sent crude into freefall — WTI dropped over 5% to $80.48, Brent fell 4.6% to $83.35 — and the broader risk-on impulse pulled capital into higher-beta FX. Gold rallied 2.85% to $4,335, a move that looks more like geopolitical premium unwind meets real-rate compression than pure safe-haven demand. Commodity currencies led the session: AUD/USD gained 0.37%, NZD/USD added 0.24%, and USD/SEK collapsed 0.74% as Scandinavian risk proxies caught a bid. JPY was the odd one out — USD/JPY held flat at 160.13 despite the softer dollar, suggesting carry demand is pinning the pair near the 160 handle.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1610 (▲ +0.30%)
Euro is pressing the 1.16 handle with conviction, printing a session high at 1.1624. The move aligns with broad dollar weakness rather than euro-specific strength, though ECB speaker flow later today could add a directional kicker. Resistance sits at the session high of 1.1624 — a clean break opens the path toward 1.1650. Support at 1.1577 (today’s low) is the level to hold for longs. The EUR/USD bid looks technically clean while DXY stays sub-99.60.

GBP/USD — 1.3434 (▲ +0.15%)
Cable is grinding higher but underperforming EUR/USD, which is pushing EUR/GBP up toward 0.8645. The 1.3461 session high is the immediate ceiling — a break there puts 1.3500 in sight as the next psychological magnet. Downside is protected at 1.3408. Sterling’s relative lag suggests the market is waiting for UK-specific catalysts before committing directionally. Watch for early London flows to set the tone.

AUD/USD — 0.7074 (▲ +0.37%)
The Aussie is the G10 outperformer, rallying on the back of copper strength (+1.24%) and the broad risk-on tilt. The session high at 0.7090 is the immediate target — a break above 0.71 would be the first clean print above that level in the current move. Support at 0.7043 (today’s low) gives a tight risk-reward for trend continuation longs. BBH’s note flagging yield spread headwinds is worth monitoring, but price action is ignoring that for now.

USD/SEK — 9.3727 (▼ -0.74%)
The session’s biggest G10 mover. SEK is catching a leveraged bid from European risk-on sentiment and the oil collapse reducing Sweden’s energy import bill at the margin. The pair broke through 9.40 support and is now testing the 9.3377 low. A continued push lower into London would mark a meaningful technical deterioration for USD/SEK bulls. This is a high-beta expression of the broader dollar-negative theme.

USD/JPY — 160.13 (flat)
The pair that isn’t moving is sometimes the most interesting. USD/JPY is glued to 160 despite DXY weakness, which tells you the carry trade is doing heavy lifting. The 160.23/159.70 range is tight. A break below 159.70 would signal the carry bid is fading — watch for any BoJ commentary or Japanese data that could tip the balance. Until then, the pair looks range-bound.

London Calendar Watch

ECB speakers are the primary scheduled input for FX today. The headlines flag ECB guidance on rate expectations, and Monday European sessions typically see Governing Council members setting the narrative for the week. Any hawkish lean could reinforce the EUR/USD bid; dovish pushback on further cuts being off the table would be needed to fade the current move. On the Fed side, the Warsh uncertainty noted in the headlines — his first meeting as Chair approaching with economists split on his policy stance — adds a layer of dollar ambiguity that may keep USD sellers comfortable through the session. No tier-one UK data is expected, so GBP will likely take its cues from broader risk sentiment and EUR/GBP flows.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is constructive above 1.1577 — the combination of ECB speaker flow and persistent DXY weakness below 99.60 favors the upside toward 1.1650. GBP/USD is a follower here, not a leader; it needs a break above 1.3461 to trigger momentum buyers. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have room for further upside if copper holds its gains, though the oil crash is a mixed signal for commodity FX — positive for importers, negative for energy exporters like CAD (USD/CAD holding above 1.3946 support). The dollar tone is soft and likely stays that way unless Warsh-related headlines shift the rate narrative. Sellers have the tape.

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