Asian Session Summary

The Asian session delivered a split tape: the dollar index drifted lower to 99.66 but individual USD crosses told a different story, with commodity-linked currencies bearing the brunt of an oil rout. WTI crude fell 3% as markets priced in supply implications from a potential US-Iran deal, and that dragged the commodity bloc — NZD, CAD, AUD, NOK — uniformly lower against the greenback. Meanwhile, the BoJ delivered its expected rate hike, but USD/JPY barely flinched, holding above 160 as Deputy Governor Uchida’s remarks suggested no urgency for follow-through tightening. Gold bid to 4350 (+0.50%) provided the only real safe-haven signal, while copper slipped 0.66%, confirming the risk-off undertone beneath the surface.

Key Pairs for London

NZD/USD — 0.5821 (▼ -0.59%)
The session’s biggest mover. The Kiwi sliced through 0.5830 support and tagged a low of 0.5799, briefly breaching the 0.58 handle before finding buyers. The oil collapse plus a broader risk-off tilt in Asia hit NZD hardest among the G10. Watch 0.5800 as the line in the sand — a London close below that level opens the door to 0.5760. Resistance sits at 0.5830, today’s Asian high.

USD/CAD — 1.4003 (▲ +0.29%)
Loonie weakness maps directly onto the WTI move. A 3% crude drop is the kind of overnight input that Canadian dollar sellers lean into during London hours. Price poked above 1.4018 before settling just above the round 1.40 figure. A hold above 1.4000 through European morning trade builds the case for a push toward 1.4050. Support at 1.3981 (today’s low) is the level bulls need to defend.

GBP/USD — 1.3417 (▼ -0.24%)
Cable came in offered from the Asian open, slipping from 1.3418 to 1.3391 before stabilising. Sterling is the weakest major-currency pair after the commodity bloc, and the softness ahead of London puts the focus on whether UK-session participants defend 1.3390 or let the pair test 1.3350. EUR/GBP ticking up to 0.8645 confirms the sterling-specific weakness rather than a broad USD bid. Topside, 1.3420 caps intraday recovery attempts.

USD/JPY — 160.23 (▲ +0.17%)
The BoJ hiked and the yen still can’t catch a bid — that tells you everything about the carry trade’s grip on this pair. Uchida’s post-decision comments leaned cautious enough to keep sellers at bay. The 160.00 round number held as support twice in Asia (low 160.04). A London break above 160.36 (today’s high) targets 160.70, the level cited in dealer forecasts as the trigger for a fresh leg higher. Below 160.00, momentum shifts.

USD/NOK — 9.5391 (▲ +0.47%)
Norwegian krone is the second-worst G10 performer behind NZD, and the oil linkage is obvious. Brent down 1.3% compounds the WTI move for NOK traders. The pair printed a high of 9.5684 in Asia before pulling back — that level becomes the initial target if London extends the oil-driven NOK selling. Support at 9.4877 (session low) looks distant without a crude bounce.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday’s European calendar is relatively light, which puts the spotlight on two dynamics. First, any ECB commentary filtering through will matter — the EU-China trade and accession discussions flagged by Rabobank could prompt policymaker remarks on trade-weighted EUR implications. Second, with the BoJ hike freshly digested, London’s JPY cross flows tend to be where institutional rebalancing shows up — watch EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY for directional conviction in early European hours. The broader backdrop of triple-witching week (options expiry Friday) means dealer hedging flows can distort spot FX from midweek onward.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD sits in a tight 20-pip Asian range near 1.1600 — this is a coiled market waiting for a London catalyst. The bias leans mildly constructive for the euro given DXY softness, but the pair needs to clear 1.1600 cleanly to attract fresh buying. GBP/USD looks more vulnerable; the EUR/GBP bid and cable’s failure to hold above 1.3420 suggest sterling-specific selling could extend if UK data disappoints or risk appetite stays subdued. The commodity bloc (CAD, NOK, AUD, NZD) is where the real follow-through risk sits — if Brent stabilises above 82, some of the overnight NOK and CAD weakness gets faded; if it doesn’t, London traders will lean into those shorts. The dollar’s tone is ambiguous at 99.66 — weak on the index, strong against commodity currencies — which means pair selection matters more than directional USD conviction today.

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