Asian Session Summary

The dollar drifted sideways through Asia with DXY pinned at 99.56, up a negligible 0.015% — but the calm headline number masks sharp divergence underneath. The Swiss franc ripped higher across every cross, with USD/CHF dropping 0.40% to 0.7912 and EUR/CHF sliding 0.28% to 0.9183. That’s textbook pre-event positioning: traders paring risk into tonight’s first Fed decision under Chair Warsh, which Deutsche Bank flagged as carrying a hawkish tilt. Scandinavian currencies joined the party — NOK gained 0.52% and SEK 0.29% against the dollar — while the antipodeans softened, with AUD and NZD both slipping fractionally. Oil’s 1.78% drop on WTI (Iran deal headlines easing supply fears through the Strait of Hormuz) weighed on commodity-linked pairs, but copper’s 0.82% rally limited the damage.

Key Pairs for London

USD/CHF — 0.7912
The biggest mover of the session and the cleanest expression of pre-Fed hedging. Price broke below 0.7920 support and tagged 0.7910 — the session low. If London sellers pile in, the 0.7900 handle is the obvious target. A bounce needs to reclaim 0.7933 (today’s high) to neutralize the move. Watch this one for momentum — CHF strength this clean tends to extend into the European morning.

GBP/JPY — 214.94
Sitting right on the 215.00 round number after softer UK inflation data pulled sterling lower against the yen. The session range is tight (214.90–215.46) but directional — sellers have been leaning on every uptick. A clean break below 214.90 opens 214.50. This is the pair that will react fastest to any follow-through selling on the CPI print once London desks are fully staffed.

EUR/USD — 1.1612
Grinding higher but contained in a 12-pip range (1.1608–1.1620). The euro is bid on the back of Deutsche Bank’s note on ECB pipeline inflation keeping rate hikes priced in, which gives the single currency a carry floor. For London, 1.1620 is the immediate ceiling — a break above puts 1.1650 in play. Support at 1.1600 round number.

USD/NOK — 9.4821
The session’s second-largest mover at -0.52%. Norwegian krone is benefiting from copper strength and broad Scandi demand. Price sliced through 9.50 and touched 9.4594 before a modest pullback. If risk appetite holds into London, 9.45 is the next downside marker. A reversal needs 9.4937 (today’s high).

GBP/CHF — 1.0607
Down 0.37% and pressing session lows. This cross captures both the CHF bid and the post-CPI sterling softness in one trade. The 1.0600 level is the line in the sand — a clean break below would be a fresh leg lower. Resistance at 1.0649.

London Calendar Watch

The softer UK inflation data referenced in overnight headlines will dominate early London trade — GBP crosses are already repricing, and the full market reaction typically comes once European desks digest the numbers. ECB commentary could surface mid-morning; Deutsche Bank’s note on pipeline inflation keeping hikes priced suggests any ECB speaker will be parsed for pushback or confirmation of that view. The elephant in the room is tonight’s Fed decision — the first under Warsh — which will suppress volatility in USD pairs as London traders avoid building large directional positions ahead of the statement. Expect tighter ranges in EUR/USD and wider swings in crosses where both legs have independent catalysts (GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY).

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans mildly constructive above 1.1600 but upside is capped by Fed paralysis — traders won’t chase the euro higher with a potentially hawkish Warsh statement hours away. GBP/USD is defensive after the CPI miss, and the sterling crosses (GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF) look most vulnerable to follow-through selling. Oil’s drop should keep CAD offered on any USD bounce, while copper’s strength gives AUD a floor despite the soft Asian session. The dollar itself is directionless at 99.56 — expect it to stay that way until 2:00am AEST.

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