Asian Session Summary

The dollar drifted lower through the Asian session, with DXY slipping 0.15% to 101.2 as risk appetite firmed on reports that the US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks. EUR/USD led the G10 board higher, gaining nearly 0.4% to trade above the 1.14 handle for the first time this session. GBP/USD followed with a quieter 0.2% bid to 1.3215. The yen was the outlier — USD/JPY barely moved at 161.82, hovering near multi-year highs despite the softer dollar tone elsewhere. Commodity markets reinforced the risk-on lean: Brent crude added 1.3%, WTI rose 0.7%, and copper gained 1.1%. Gold sat flat at 4,079, offering no safe-haven signal. The standout underperformer was NOK, with USD/NOK rising 0.6% against the grain of broader dollar weakness.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1406
Up 0.39% on the session with a clean grind from the 1.1383 low. The Asian high at 1.1418 is the immediate ceiling London needs to clear. A break above opens room toward the 1.1450 area. Support sits at the session low near 1.1383. The move is DXY-driven rather than EUR-specific — watch whether European flows confirm the bid or fade it at the highs.

USD/JPY — 161.82
Flat on the day despite USD weakness across the board. The yen continues to bleed, holding near multi-year lows that UOB flagged in overnight commentary. The pair is coiling in a tight 161.67–161.86 range. For London, the 162.00 round number is the topside magnet. Any verbal jawboning from Japanese officials — or a genuine risk-off shock — could trigger a sharp unwind given how stretched positioning is. Until then, dip buyers keep showing up.

GBP/USD — 1.3215
Modest 0.2% gain with a 1.3192–1.3228 range. Cable is tracking EUR/USD higher but with less conviction — EUR/GBP drifting up 0.18% to 0.8629 tells you sterling is underperforming the single currency. The 1.3230 Asian high is resistance. A London push through there would put 1.3250 in play. On the downside, 1.3190 held twice in Asia and acts as the near-term floor.

USD/NOK — 9.9291
The session’s biggest G10 mover, up 0.62% — an unusual divergence given the Brent rally and softer DXY. NOK weakness here may reflect thin Monday liquidity rather than a fundamental shift. The 9.90 handle held as support with the session low at 9.8979. If Brent holds its gains through London, this move looks vulnerable to a retrace back toward 9.90. Watch the 9.9545 high as topside resistance.

AUD/USD — 0.6898
Fractionally lower despite copper rallying 1.1% — a notable divergence. The Aussie printed a narrow 0.6884–0.6906 range. EUR/AUD gaining 0.43% reinforces the picture of AUD underperformance. London traders may look at this as a laggard trade if the risk-on tone holds: a break above the 0.6906 Asian high would start to close the gap with copper’s move.

London Calendar Watch

Monday opens are typically light on scheduled European data, and today is no exception. The main driver going into London is the geopolitical backdrop — the reported US-Iran agreement to halt attacks is supporting oil and risk sentiment, but details remain thin and any deterioration in that narrative could reverse the risk-on lean quickly. With month-end approaching on Tuesday, FX desks will also be positioning around rebalancing flows, which can dominate price action independently of macro catalysts. Keep an eye on any ECB speaker appearances that may surface on the calendar — rate path commentary would give EUR/USD a fundamental anchor beyond the DXY move.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias leans constructive above 1.1383 — the Asian bid was orderly, and DXY has limited technical support until 101.00. GBP/USD is a follower today, not a leader; sterling needs its own catalyst to outperform, and EUR/GBP drift suggests it won’t get one in the early London hours. The oil bid supports a watching brief on CAD longs against USD, though USD/CAD needs to break below 1.4170 to confirm. The dollar tone is soft but not collapsing — this is a grind lower, not a rout, and month-end flows could easily scramble the picture by Tuesday.

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