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Asian Session Summary

The dollar came into the Asian session on the back foot and never recovered. DXY dropped to 101.1, losing nearly 0.3% as yen strength dominated flows. USD/JPY fell sharply from a session high of 162.6 to a low of 161.1 — a 150-pip range — after reports of intervention concerns triggered aggressive short-covering in JPY. The move rippled across yen crosses, with AUD/JPY dropping over 1% and EUR/JPY shedding close to 0.8%. Sterling was the other standout, rallying 0.66% against the dollar and breaking lower in EUR/GBP as short positions unwound. Commodity markets were mixed — gold bid at 4082 (+0.34%) while crude slipped, with WTI down 0.6% to $68.16 and Brent at $71.10. Copper held a small bid at $6.137.

Key Pairs for London

USD/JPY — 161.41
The session’s most active pair. The drop from 162.6 to 161.1 came on intervention speculation after the yen hit fresh multi-decade lows. Short-covering was the primary driver, not confirmed intervention, but the speed of the move has reset positioning. The 161.0 handle is the session low support — a clean break below opens a run toward 160.50. Resistance sits at 162.0, the upper half of today’s range. London dealers will be watching for any MoF commentary or further verbal warnings.

GBP/USD — 1.3338
Cable is trading at session highs after a clean rally from 1.3275. The EUR/GBP break below 0.856 support suggests this is a GBP-specific bid, not just dollar weakness — ING flagged sterling short unwinding as the driver. The 1.3340 area is immediate resistance; a topside break could open a test of 1.3380. Support at 1.3275 (session low) looks well-defined.

EUR/USD — 1.1412
Sitting near the top of its session range (1.1378–1.1413) but underperforming GBP. The pair is catching a lift from broad USD weakness, but EUR/GBP selling is capping the move. A sustained hold above 1.1400 keeps the bias constructive into London. Below 1.1378, the short-term bid evaporates.

AUD/JPY — 111.21
Down over 1% and the worst-performing cross in the session. The combination of yen strength and a soft AUD (AUD/USD -0.26%) is compressing the pair toward the 111.0 handle. If the JPY bid persists into London, 110.80 is the next downside marker. Oil weakness isn’t helping the AUD case either.

EUR/GBP — 0.85531
A -0.7% session drop took the cross below 0.856 — a level that had been holding. The break confirms the sterling outperformance theme. If London flow reinforces the move, 0.8530 is the next support zone. A snap-back above 0.8574 (mid-range) would suggest the break was a false one.

London Calendar Watch

Thursday’s London session lands in a quiet window for top-tier UK data, but the backdrop is still active. Swiss CPI came in soft based on overnight headlines, which has kept EUR/CHF steady near 0.920 — any follow-through SNB commentary could move the franc further. On the UK side, BoE speakers may surface given the sterling move, particularly if the EUR/GBP break draws attention. EU-wide PMI revisions for June are due early in the session and could set the tone for EUR crosses. The dominant flow driver, however, remains the JPY intervention narrative — London is the session where institutional desks typically re-price BoJ/MoF risk.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD bias is mildly constructive above 1.1400 but lacks independent momentum — GBP is the cleaner European long here. GBP/USD holding above 1.3300 with EUR/GBP breaking support tilts the sterling setup toward further upside into the 1.3350–1.3380 zone. Oil weakness (-0.6% on WTI) keeps the commodity-linked currencies — AUD, CAD, NOK — on the defensive, though copper’s small bid prevents a full risk-off read. The DXY tone is soft at 101.1, and the yen intervention threat adds a layer of caution for anyone running long USD/JPY into European hours.

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