Asian Session Summary

The dollar sold off broadly through the Asian session, with DXY sliding to 100.7 and losing ground against every G10 counterpart. The move accelerated after yesterday’s tepid US jobs report continued to reprice Fed expectations — markets are pulling forward rate-cut bets, and that’s showing up cleanly in the crosses. Commodity currencies led the charge: AUD/USD pushed above 0.6940 on the back of a 2.13% copper rally, while NZD/USD printed session highs near 0.5728. Gold surged nearly 2% to $4,193, reinforcing the anti-dollar bid. The Scandinavian currencies caught a tailwind too, with USD/NOK dropping over 1% and USD/SEK off 0.8%. It was a one-way session — sellers controlled the tape from the Tokyo open.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1457
Up 70 pips on the session and pressing the top of its range at 1.1465. The pair hasn’t traded above 1.1450 with this kind of momentum in weeks. A clean break above the session high opens the psychological 1.1500 handle. Support sits at the session low near 1.1423. HCOB PMI data drops early in London and will either confirm or fade this bid — a soft print could stall the rally, but the dollar headwind is doing the heavy lifting here.

USD/JPY — 160.78
The standout mover, down over 1% and slicing through 161. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara explicitly flagged that officials are “monitoring market movements with a high sense of urgency” — that’s the verbal intervention playbook, and it landed. Session low printed at 160.47. The 160 round number is the line in the sand for Tokyo — a break below it in London would ratchet intervention odds higher. Resistance back at 161.50 (session high). GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY are tracking lower in sympathy.

GBP/USD — 1.3372
Cable matched EUR/USD’s gains almost tick-for-tick, up 0.70% and hovering just below the session high at 1.3380. The 1.3400 round number is the obvious target for London bulls. EUR/GBP is flat at 0.8566, which tells you this is a pure USD story — sterling isn’t outperforming or underperforming the euro, it’s just riding the dollar move. Session low at 1.3335 is the pullback level to watch.

AUD/USD — 0.6947
Copper’s 2.13% surge is the engine here. The Aussie pushed through 0.6940 resistance and tagged 0.6952 at the highs. The pair is now knocking on 0.6950, a level that has capped rallies multiple times this quarter. A sustained hold above it in London would be technically meaningful. Gold’s move to $4,193 adds a secondary tailwind. Downside support at the session low of 0.6914.

USD/NOK — 9.804
The biggest Scandi mover, down over 1% and testing below 9.80. NOK tends to amplify risk-on moves given its oil sensitivity, though Brent is essentially flat today. This looks more like a pure dollar-unwind trade. Session low at 9.7962 is the first support; a break below puts the 9.75 zone in play.

London Calendar Watch

The HCOB final services and composite PMI prints for the eurozone drop in the first hour of London trading — the headline referenced in overnight wires. These are June finals, so revisions from the flash readings will drive any reaction. A beat would give EUR/USD the catalyst to test 1.1500. Beyond PMI, expect thin conditions as the session progresses — US markets close early today ahead of the Fourth of July weekend, which means New York liquidity will be minimal by the London afternoon. That thinning book can amplify moves in either direction, particularly in USD/JPY where intervention headlines could land at any moment.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD bias is higher into London. The US data backdrop has shifted dovish, the dollar is weak across the board, and there’s no obvious catalyst to reverse the move before the US holiday drains liquidity. Commodity-linked pairs — AUD and NZD especially — have room for follow-through if copper holds its gains and risk appetite carries into European equities. The DXY tone is bearish below 101; a close under this level on a holiday-shortened Friday would set up further selling into next week.

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