Asian Session Summary

The dollar index drifted lower to 101, shedding 0.17% through Asia, but the move masked a split personality underneath. USD lost ground against the commodity currencies — CAD in particular ripped higher on the back of a 2%+ surge in crude — while holding firm against sterling and the Scandies. JPY stayed on the back foot with USD/JPY pinned above 162, and the yen crosses (CAD/JPY +0.40%, NZD/JPY +0.35%) told the clearer story: this was a risk-appetite session dressed up as dollar weakness. Gold slipped 0.24% to $4,136, doing nothing to challenge the narrative. Copper was flat. The real driver was oil — WTI up 2.1% to $71.92, Brent up 2.2% to $75.79 — and everything else followed from that.

Key Pairs for London

USD/CAD — 1.4163
The standout mover of the Asian session, down 0.32% and breaking cleanly below 1.4200. The catalyst is straightforward: crude’s 2%+ rally gives the loonie a direct tailwind. Today’s low sits at 1.4157 — a clean break there opens room toward 1.4100. Resistance is the session high at 1.4209. London typically adds volume to oil-driven CAD moves, so this one has legs if Brent holds above $75.50.

GBP/USD — 1.3366
Cable is leaking lower, down 0.24%, and the session high at 1.3370 marks the ceiling to beat. UOB flagged fading momentum against the dollar in their overnight note — the price action confirms it. The 1.3343 low is first support. Sterling needs a domestic catalyst to reverse this grind; without one, London may push cable into the 1.3320s. EUR/GBP ticking up to 0.8549 adds to the bearish read on GBP specifically rather than broad USD strength.

USD/JPY — 162.22
Grinding higher by less than a tenth of a percent, but that’s the point — the pair refuses to correct. The session range was tight (162.07–162.46), and the yen crosses are where the action is. EUR/JPY at 185.35 and GBP/JPY at 216.80 tell the same story: nobody wants to own yen at these yield differentials. Watch 162.50 as the upside trigger for London; 162.00 is the psychological floor that held overnight.

NZD/USD — 0.5720
The best-performing G10 pair, up 0.33%, though the absolute level remains depressed below 0.5750. The session high at 0.5721 barely budged above the open, which suggests the move was more short-covering than fresh buying. London will test whether this holds — a fade back toward the 0.5676 low would confirm the squeeze is spent.

USD/SEK — 9.6748
The biggest mover by magnitude, up 0.52%, pushing SEK to the weakest levels of the session. The krona has no friends when risk appetite is selective rather than broad. Session high at 9.7062 is the target if London extends the move. This pair tends to get overlooked, but a half-percent move through Asia sets up continuation into European hours.

London Calendar Watch

Wednesday’s European calendar is typically lighter than the Tuesday/Thursday data clusters, but there are a few potential catalysts to track. ECB speakers could surface — the Bank has been in a vocal stretch, and any commentary on the rate path would hit EUR/USD directly at this 1.1430 level. UK-specific data releases mid-week are possible; any housing or industrial figures would feed into the cable momentum question. BNY’s note flagging elevated USD exposure suggests institutional positioning is stretched — that kind of setup can amplify moves on even second-tier data prints.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD looks like a fade candidate into London — the pair is drifting lower at 1.1430, and without a domestic euro catalyst, the path of least resistance is toward the session low at 1.1403. GBP/USD bias is similarly soft, with momentum flagged as fading and no headline support to reverse the drift. The commodity bloc is the cleaner trade: USD/CAD has room to extend lower if oil holds its gains through European hours, and AUD/USD may find a bid on the China-proxy read if copper stabilises. The DXY at 101 is soft but not breaking down — this is a selective dollar session, not a broad rout.

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