Asian Session Summary

The dollar drifted lower overnight with DXY slipping to 100.9, down a marginal 0.09% as traders positioned ahead of a week headlined by US CPI. The real story out of Asia was energy — WTI crude jumped 3% and Brent over 3.1% after the latest US-Iran military exchange, dragging gold lower (-0.62% to $4,079) as the risk premium rotated into oil rather than havens. The yen caught a bid on fresh intervention chatter from Tokyo, pulling USD/JPY back below 162.10 after printing an overnight high near 162.36. NZD was the session outperformer, rallying 0.41% against the dollar on broad risk appetite, while the Scandies diverged — SEK firmed but NOK weakened despite crude strength, a disconnect worth watching into London.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1444
Edging higher, up 0.1% on the session, with the overnight range of 1.1390–1.1450 defining the immediate field. The pair is pressing the top of that band heading into London. A clean break above 1.1450 opens the door toward 1.1480-1.1500 round-number resistance. Downside support sits at the Asian low of 1.1390. Dollar tone this week hinges on Wednesday’s US CPI print, and Monday flows tend to be positioning — expect range compression unless a European data surprise lands.

USD/JPY — 162.05
ING flagged rising intervention risk overnight, and the pair’s proximity to levels that triggered MoF action in previous cycles keeps topside capped. Today’s high of 162.36 marks immediate resistance; the Asian low at 161.58 is the downside pivot. A break below 161.50 could accelerate on stop-hunting into 161.00. Long positioning remains crowded, and any hawkish BoJ leak during London hours would amplify the move.

GBP/USD — 1.3411
UOB’s call that the sterling rally is fading into a range trade looks accurate — cable is flat on the day, stuck between 1.3370 support and 1.3412 resistance (today’s high, barely tested). The pair has been grinding sideways after last week’s push. London traders will look for a directional break. Below 1.3370 targets the 1.3340 area; above 1.3420 reopens 1.3450. Light calendar on Monday could keep this contained.

USD/NOK — 9.7632
The standout divergence play. NOK is weaker by 0.53% against the dollar despite WTI surging 3%. That disconnect — crude up, krone down — suggests broader risk repricing or position squaring rather than a macro-fundamental move. If oil holds above $73 through the London session, the NOK sell-off looks mispriced and a mean-reversion trade toward 9.7000 has legs. Resistance at today’s 9.7950 high.

NZD/USD — 0.5786
Best G10 performer overnight, up 0.41% and sitting right at the session high. The move looks momentum-driven on broad dollar softness and risk-on flows. The 0.5750 area (just above the Asian low of 0.5749) becomes first support on any pullback. A push through 0.5800 round number would be technically constructive, but London often fades Asia-session moves in the kiwi — watch for profit-taking early in the European morning.

London Calendar Watch

Monday opens are typically lighter on the data front, and today fits that pattern. The week’s marquee release is US CPI on Wednesday — OCBC’s note on a “modest grind higher” in the dollar reflects pre-CPI positioning more than Monday conviction. For London specifically, the focus shifts to earnings: Citigroup reports this week and bank results set the tone for risk appetite across asset classes. Any unscheduled ECB or BoE commentary could move EUR/GBP, which is trading mid-range at 0.8534 after a quiet overnight session. The Middle East escalation keeps oil-related headlines as the primary exogenous risk through the session.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans mildly constructive above 1.1400, but conviction is low ahead of CPI — expect a 1.1390–1.1460 range to hold for London. GBP/USD is neutral and rangebound until a catalyst breaks the 1.3370–1.3420 band. The oil bid should eventually support commodity-linked currencies — the NOK divergence looks unsustainable if crude holds, making USD/NOK fades the higher-conviction London play. Dollar bears need CPI to cooperate later this week; until then, DXY is drifting but not breaking.

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