Asian Session Summary

The overnight session delivered a clear theme: sell sterling. GBP/USD dropped 0.6% through the Asian hours to trade at 1.3458, the weakest of the G10 complex. The move pulled EUR/GBP above 0.8500 — a level that had capped the cross for most of this week. DXY itself barely moved, drifting 5 pips lower to 100.70, which tells you the dollar bid was selective rather than broad-based. USD/SEK rallied 0.6% and USD/CHF added 30 pips as the Scandis and franc gave ground, but EUR/USD held relatively well at 1.1448, down less than 20 pips. Gold ticked above the 4000 handle again (+0.38%), while copper fell 0.7% — a divergence that flags risk hedging rather than outright reflation.

Key Pairs for London

GBP/USD — 1.3458
The standout mover. Cable has already printed a session low of 1.3458 and the day’s high of 1.3480 looks like a fade. The 0.6% drop is outsized for a Friday Asia session and points to position adjustment ahead of London. Watch 1.3450 as immediate support — a clean break opens the 1.3400 round number. Resistance sits at the session high of 1.3480. The move looks technically driven rather than news-catalysed, which means London dealers may test for stops below the Asian low.

EUR/GBP — 0.8504
The GBP weakness story expressed through the cross. The break above 0.8500 is the cleanest signal from overnight — the pair tagged 0.8505 and is holding just below. If London confirms the break, the next target is the 0.8530-0.8540 zone. A rejection back below 0.8486 (today’s low) would suggest the move was Asia-only and fades into the weekend.

EUR/USD — 1.1448
Relatively stable despite the broader dollar bid, which speaks to euro resilience. The pair is trading in a tight 17-pip range (1.1439–1.1456). UOB’s note flags bullish bias but capped by resistance — that aligns with the price action. For London, 1.1460 is the topside to clear; 1.1435-1.1440 is the floor. A break either way probably needs a catalyst from the Eurozone data calendar.

AUD/USD — 0.6986
Down 0.3% and pressing the 0.7000 handle from below — or rather, failing to hold above it. The session high of 0.7003 was rejected. Copper’s 0.7% decline is the read-through here. If London risk tone stays defensive (the Deutsche Bank “tech-led selloff” headline suggests equities are soft), AUD could extend toward 0.6960-0.6970. A recovery above 0.7000 needs risk sentiment to stabilise.

USD/JPY — 162.27
Grinding higher in a 37-pip range. The pair is caught between carry demand (pushing higher) and the Rabobank headline flagging supply, inflation, and fiscal risks for JPY. For London, 162.50 is the topside pivot — the session high sits at 162.48, just below it. A break above targets 163.00. Downside support at 162.00 round number, which held today.

London Calendar Watch

The headline mention of Eurozone HICP inflation data is the marquee print for this session. Final June CPI readings could shift ECB rate-cut expectations and drive EUR crosses in either direction — watch EUR/USD and EUR/GBP for the reaction. Beyond that, Friday London sessions typically bring month-end positioning flows early and reduced liquidity into the afternoon as desks square up for the weekend. The global tech selloff flagged by Deutsche Bank could spill into European equity futures at the open, adding a risk-off overlay that would favour CHF and JPY over the commodity bloc.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD looks contained — the euro is holding up but lacks a catalyst to break higher, and the dollar isn’t pressing hard enough to force a breakdown. Lean neutral with a mild bid tone unless HICP surprises. GBP/USD is the vulnerability trade — the 0.6% Asia drop sets up London for either a continuation flush below 1.3450 or a short-covering bounce, and Friday positioning dynamics favour the former. AUD and NZD face headwinds from weak copper and the equity risk-off tone, making any rally toward 0.7000 in AUD/USD a sell-the-bounce setup. DXY at 100.70 is directionless — the dollar’s strength is pair-specific, not index-wide, which keeps the greenback in a holding pattern into the weekend.

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