Asian Session Summary

The overnight session delivered a clear commodity-currency bid. AUD/USD punched through 0.7020 on the back of a nearly 3% copper rally, while NZD/USD climbed above 0.5860 after New Zealand’s CPI print reinforced expectations for further RBNZ tightening. The dollar index drifted lower but the move was modest — DXY sits at 100.9, off less than a tenth of a percent. The bigger story was divergence within G10: antipodeans rallied hard, GBP edged lower despite solid UK jobs data earlier, and USD/CAD pushed higher as fresh US tariffs on Canada hit the tape. Gold jumped 1.6% to $4,076 on reports of progress in Iran diplomacy talks, which simultaneously weighed on crude — WTI dropped 1.4% to $82.07 and Brent slipped below $88.50.

Key Pairs for London

AUD/USD — 0.7022
The session’s standout mover, up 0.61%. Copper’s 2.97% surge is doing the heavy lifting here. The pair tagged a high of 0.70249 and has held above 0.7000 since the Asian morning. Resistance sits at 0.7025 — a clean break opens the door toward 0.7050. Support at 0.6996 (today’s low). London flows tend to test overnight ranges in the first hour; watch whether European real-money accounts fade or extend the move.

NZD/USD — 0.5861
Up 0.37% after NZ inflation data came in strong enough to keep RBNZ rate hike bets alive. The pair printed a high of 0.58741 before pulling back slightly. That 0.5875 zone is the level to clear for a push toward 0.5900. Downside support at 0.5835 (today’s low). AUD/NZD cross flows could cap NZD if AUD continues to outperform on the copper bid.

USD/CAD — 1.4065
Grinding higher, up 0.32%, after the US announced stiff new tariffs on Canadian goods. The pair printed 1.4085 intraday — that’s the level to watch on the topside. If London pushes through 1.4085, the 1.4100 handle becomes the next target. Support at 1.4054. Oil weakness adds another headwind for CAD. This pair could see follow-through if European desks layer into the tariff narrative.

GBP/USD — 1.3441
Marginally softer despite upbeat UK employment data — the pound gained against the euro but couldn’t hold gains against the dollar. EUR/GBP slipped to 0.8498, confirming relative GBP strength within Europe, but cable is stuck in a tight 1.3424–1.3456 range. London’s opening print will matter: a break below 1.3424 targets 1.3400, while a reclaim of 1.3456 reopens the topside. The employment data should provide a floor unless risk sentiment deteriorates.

EUR/USD — 1.1426
Flat overnight, down a fraction. The pair is consolidating between 1.1413 and 1.1430 — the tightest daily range in the data set. EUR/GBP weakness suggests the euro is underperforming within Europe. A break below 1.1413 could trigger stops toward 1.1390. Topside resistance at 1.1430 needs a catalyst to crack — today’s London calendar may provide one.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday London sessions typically bring mid-tier eurozone data and any residual UK labour market reaction. The UK employment numbers are already out and came in strong, so the market has digested the headline — but wage growth details could still generate GBP volatility if traders reassess BoE rate path pricing through the morning. ECB speakers are possible given the proximity to the July meeting window, and any commentary on the Fed’s inflation framework — flagged by Commerzbank overnight — could feed into EUR/USD positioning. Watch for any EU trade policy headlines given the escalating US-Canada tariff situation; spillover into EU trade concerns would pressure EUR.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD looks neutral-to-soft heading into London — the pair lacks a catalyst to break out of its 17-pip overnight range, and relative euro weakness against the pound suggests sellers have the edge on any push toward 1.1430. GBP/USD has better structural support from the employment data but needs to reclaim 1.3456 to shift the short-term picture higher. Commodity-linked currencies are the cleanest momentum trade: AUD/USD has room to extend if copper holds its gains, and USD/CAD could see further upside if European desks lean into the tariff theme. The dollar’s tone is indecisive — DXY barely moved overnight despite gold surging to nearly $4,080, which suggests the greenback is losing its safe-haven bid to bullion on the Iran diplomacy angle.

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