Asian Session Summary

The dollar drifted lower overnight with DXY slipping 0.06% to 101.1, unable to find a bid despite USD/JPY pushing to fresh 40-year highs above 163.30. The session belonged to the Scandinavian currencies — NOK gained 0.64% against the greenback as WTI crude surged 3.2% on escalating Iran risk premium, while SEK edged up modestly. NZD was the clear underperformer, dropping 0.36% through 0.5810 with no obvious catalyst beyond position adjustment. EUR/USD ground higher through the Asian range to trade at 1.1427, while cable stayed pinned near 1.3373. The commodity complex told a split story: WTI bid hard at 89.60, gold sold off 1.25% to 4095, and copper was flat. Risk appetite was mixed — not a clean risk-on or risk-off tape heading into Europe.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1427
Up 0.21% on the session with a clean grind from the 1.1409 low. ING flagged a hawkish ECB stance limiting euro downside, which aligns with the pair’s reluctance to break below 1.14 this week. Resistance sits at the Asian high of 1.1439 — a clean break opens a run toward 1.1450. Support at 1.1409 is the session floor. Bias is mildly constructive while DXY stays soft.

USD/JPY — 163.31
Trading near 40-year highs with UOB calling for further losses toward 163.50. The pair is in uncomfortable territory — headlines reference both hawkish BoJ bets and intervention fears, creating a tug-of-war. The Asian high at 163.43 is the immediate ceiling; a breach targets 163.50 where verbal intervention risk intensifies. Support at the 162.99 low held cleanly. London often tests Tokyo’s extremes — watch for a probe of either end.

GBP/USD — 1.3373
Essentially flat overnight (-0.04%) and caught between intervention-driven yen flows and a soft dollar. The 1.3394 high was rejected twice in Asia, making it the level to beat for London bulls. A failure there keeps cable rangebound with downside toward 1.3368. EUR/GBP creeping to 0.8542 suggests relative euro strength — sterling may underperform the single currency into European trade.

USD/NOK — 9.5705
The standout mover, down 0.64% as NOK rode the WTI bid. The pair punched through 9.57 with the low printing at 9.555. Oil-linked FX tends to extend in London when the energy desk comes in — if WTI holds above 89, further NOK strength toward 9.54 is plausible. Resistance at 9.5971 caps any reversal.

NZD/USD — 0.5805
Weakest G10 currency overnight, dropping 0.36% and slicing below 0.5810. The pair is testing the bottom of its recent range with the session low at 0.5800 acting as a psychological floor. NZD/JPY also soft at 94.77, down 0.29%. A London break below 0.5800 opens a move toward 0.5775. Any recovery likely stalls at the 0.5825 Asian high.

London Calendar Watch

Thursday’s European session typically brings PMI flash prints in July — both Eurozone and UK manufacturing and services composites would be the main event if scheduled today. Given the ECB’s hawkish posture flagged by ING, any services PMI beat would reinforce rate expectations and support EUR. On the UK side, watch for BoE commentary in the press — the “hesitant bulls” framing around sterling suggests the market is waiting for a policy signal. The Iran risk premium headline adds a geopolitical overlay: energy traders in London will set the tone for NOK and CAD early, particularly if Brent stabilises after its 8.2% drop.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD leans constructive — the hawkish ECB floor plus a drifting DXY gives dip-buyers cover above 1.1400. GBP/USD is a fade-the-range trade until cable can clear 1.3394 with conviction; EUR/GBP’s upward drift favours long EUR over long GBP for directional euro-bullish exposure. On commodity-linked pairs, NOK has momentum if WTI holds its gains — USD/NOK through 9.55 would mark a fresh leg lower. The dollar tone is soft but not broken; DXY at 101.1 is mid-range, and USD/JPY’s push to 40-year highs is the one pocket of genuine dollar strength — driven by rate differentials rather than broad greenback demand.

Read next: FX Markets · How to Read the COT Report · How Institutional Order Flow Moves Price