Asian Session Summary

The dollar got sold through the floor in Asia. USD/JPY dropped nearly 2% to 160.26, punching through 160 intraday before finding a bid — that’s the kind of move that reshapes positioning for the rest of the week. DXY is clinging to 100.1, technically positive by 10 pips but functionally flat given the carnage underneath. The antipodeans ran hard: AUD/USD cleared 0.7030 with copper up 1.23% providing the fundamental tailwind, while NZD/USD pushed toward 0.5880 before stalling. GBP/USD extended to 1.3452, its strongest print of the session. Gold at 4128 (+0.68%) and crude weakness (WTI -1.28%) tell a story of selective risk appetite — metals bid, energy offered.

Key Pairs for London

USD/JPY — 160.26
The session’s main event. A 1.86% drop is outsized for any G10 pair in a single Asian session. The low printed at 159.35, meaning the pair has already retraced about half the move off the bottom. London dealers will be watching 159.35 as the near-term floor — a break below reopens the path toward 158 that forecasters are already flagging. Topside, 160.88 is today’s high and the level where sellers re-emerged. Month-end flows could amplify either direction.

GBP/USD — 1.3452
Cable is riding a dovish-hold narrative from the Bank of England. The read is straightforward: rates on hold but the door open for cuts means the pound holds yield appeal while the easing bias caps it. Today’s range of 1.3441–1.3470 is tight — London should resolve that. A push above 1.3470 puts 1.3500 in play as the obvious round-number magnet. Support sits at the Asian low of 1.3441.

EUR/USD — 1.1518
Commerzbank’s “supported by growth surprise” note aligns with price action — the pair is up 44 pips and holding the upper half of a 1.1509–1.1534 range. The 1.1500 handle is now support rather than resistance. London bulls will target a retest of 1.1534 and potentially a push toward 1.1550. EUR/GBP drifting lower (-0.21%) suggests the euro bid is more about dollar weakness than euro-specific demand.

AUD/USD — 0.7032
Copper’s 1.23% rally is doing the heavy lifting here. The pair cleared 0.7030 and printed a high of 0.7040 — clean air above if commodity momentum holds through European hours. The low at 0.7023 marks the Asian session floor. AUD/JPY at 112.65 is also worth monitoring as a proxy for broader risk sentiment — it’s down 0.86%, which means the AUD bid is entirely a USD story, not a risk-on story.

NZD/USD — 0.5874
The kiwi is outperforming even the Aussie (+1.24% vs +1.05%), but it’s running into a wall. Previous highs around 0.5860 — flagged in overnight commentary — are holding as the pivot. The Asian high at 0.5884 is the level to beat. A failure here and the pair likely consolidates; a clean break opens 0.5900 as the next round number.

London Calendar Watch

It’s month-end Friday — that alone creates its own event risk. Portfolio rebalancing flows typically peak in the London fix window and can overwhelm technicals for 30–60 minutes. Given how far the dollar has fallen this month, there’s a case for month-end USD buying as fund managers rebalance hedges on equity gains. Beyond flows, watch for any follow-through on the BoE dovish-hold framing — UK money markets may reprice August cut odds early in the session. Eurozone flash CPI and GDP prints are typical end-of-month releases that could land during European hours, reinforcing or challenging the “growth surprise” narrative that’s currently supporting EUR/USD.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both enter London with upward momentum, but the bulk of the move has already happened in Asia — chasers beware. The real question is whether month-end rebalancing acts as a headwind to the dollar-selling trend or whether it accelerates it. Copper strength keeps AUD/USD supported, though crude weakness (-1.28% WTI) argues against adding to CAD longs here. DXY at 100.1 is barely holding triple digits — if London pushes it below 100 clean, that’s a psychological break that could trigger a fresh wave of systematic selling into the weekend.

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