Asian Session Summary

The dollar drifted sideways overnight, DXY printing 99.95 and unable to reclaim the 100 handle. The real story was in the crosses: the Swiss franc got sold hard across the board, USD/CHF climbing 0.6% to 0.8115 while GBP/CHF pushed through 1.0900 to trade at 1.0912. The yen also weakened, USD/JPY grinding higher to 158.40 as the rate differential trade stayed intact. Commodity currencies underperformed modestly — AUD and NZD both down roughly 0.28% — despite supportive commodity prices. Gold was the standout, surging 2.4% to 4345 on a mix of geopolitical hedging and pre-NFP positioning. Copper traded near record highs on tight supply, adding 0.55%.

Key Pairs for London

USD/CHF — 0.8115 (+0.60%)
The session’s widest G10 mover. The rally through 0.8100 came on broad CHF weakness rather than pure dollar demand — EUR/CHF also climbed 0.29% to 0.9350. Today’s high sits at 0.8129, which is the first resistance to watch. If NFP prints soft, the 0.8100 round number becomes the downside pivot. The franc is trading as the consensus short into payrolls.

USD/JPY — 158.40 (+0.51%)
The pair pushed off 158.21 lows and touched 158.58 during Asian hours. Headlines note GBP/JPY holding above 213.00 as the rate gap continues to undermine yen demand. For London, 158.60 (today’s high zone) is the topside marker. A clean break targets the 159 handle. Below 158.20, sellers have a chance to fade the move ahead of US data.

EUR/USD — 1.1526 (-0.27%)
Drifted lower in a tight 7-pip range (1.1522–1.1529), which tells you the market is parking ahead of NFP. The 1.1520 low has held twice today — a break below puts 1.1500 in play as the next round-number support. London is unlikely to force a directional move pre-payrolls, but watch for a stop run below 1.1520 if early European flow leans dollar.

GBP/USD — 1.3448 (-0.16%)
Cable is respecting the 1.3446 session low while UOB’s note flags fading upside below 1.3410 — that level now sits well below spot, suggesting a shift in short-term bias. Today’s high at 1.3459 is the line to reclaim for bulls. A Friday NFP miss could reignite the bid toward 1.3500, but absent that, the drift lower looks set to continue.

GBP/CHF — 1.0912 (+0.45%)
The cross rallied cleanly through 1.0900, reaching 1.0935 before pulling back. This is a momentum pair today — sterling strength against franc weakness is a clean expression of the rate-differential theme. Dips toward 1.0910 offer re-entry if the trend holds. Below 1.0900 unwinds the move.

London Calendar Watch

The entire session pivots around US Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am ET (1:30pm London). Headlines confirm the market has rotated from Middle East risk to jobs data as the primary driver. London’s pre-NFP window tends to compress ranges as desks lighten positions — expect EUR/USD and GBP/USD to tighten further until the release. There is no tier-one European data on the calendar today. Any ECB or BoE commentary would be unscheduled, but Friday afternoons in August rarely produce surprises on that front. The real action for London desks will be positioning into — and the immediate reaction after — the US print.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both on the defensive but holding above session lows, which reads as cautious rather than committed selling. The gold surge and firmer oil prices suggest underlying risk hedging, yet the franc and yen weakness argue against a true risk-off stance — this looks like pre-event flattening, not directional conviction. The dollar’s inability to push DXY above 100 keeps the medium-term bearish USD thesis alive, but today’s session belongs to NFP. Trade the levels, not the bias, until 1:30pm London.

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