Asian Session Summary

The dollar limped through Asia, holding a token +0.04% on the DXY at 99.64 while losing ground against nearly every G10 counterpart. The session belonged to commodity-linked currencies — AUD/USD pushed to 0.7077 on the back of a 1.21% copper rally, while USD/CAD slid 0.55% to 1.3937 as crude held firm. Gold’s 1.67% surge to $4,413 set the tone early, drawing flows out of the greenback and into traditional havens like the Swiss franc (USD/CHF -0.64%). The yen remained the outlier, unable to catch a bid despite broad USD softness — USD/JPY edged higher to 158.49 as rate differentials and fiscal concerns continued to weigh. Scandis joined the anti-dollar move with SEK gaining 0.42% and NOK adding 0.28%.

Key Pairs for London

AUD/USD — 0.7077 (+0.62%)
The standout mover overnight. Copper’s rally gave the Aussie a clean bid, and price is sitting right at the session high. The 0.7100 handle is the immediate test for London — a clean break opens the door toward 0.7150. Support rests at today’s low of 0.7060. Watch for any follow-through in base metals at the European open.

USD/CHF — 0.8073 (-0.64%)
The biggest G10 loser for the dollar. Gold strength and broad risk appetite are pulling this pair lower. The session low at 0.8059 is the level to watch — a break below 0.8050 would mark fresh multi-month territory. Resistance sits at the 0.8094 high. The move has room to extend if European equity futures open firm.

EUR/USD — 1.1567 (+0.37%)
Pushing toward the session high of 1.1570 with clean momentum. The 1.1600 round number is the magnet for London. Headlines flagging a DXY acceleration below 99.40 add fuel — if the dollar index breaks that floor, EUR/USD could gap toward 1.1620-1.1650. Near-term support at 1.1551 (today’s low).

GBP/USD — 1.3503 (+0.36%)
Cable printed a fresh one-week high at 1.3505 overnight, carried by yen weakness rotating into sterling longs. The 1.3500 level has flipped from resistance to support — London needs to hold that on any early pullback. A sustained bid above 1.3510 targets 1.3550. EUR/GBP flat at 0.8564 suggests this is a USD story, not a sterling-specific one.

GBP/JPY — 214.00 (+0.40%)
The carry trade proxy is pressing session highs. The yen’s inability to rally even as gold surges tells you the rate gap narrative is dominant. A break above 214.01 (today’s high) opens 215.00 as the next round number. The 212.59 low is the invalidation level for London longs.

London Calendar Watch

Monday mornings tend to be light on tier-one data, and this session looks no different. The real action this week is the US inflation print — futures headlines are already flagging CPI as the macro event traders are positioning around. For today’s London session, attention shifts to any scheduled ECB or BoE commentary that could give EUR or GBP an independent catalyst. Geopolitics also thread through the session — Iran uncertainty and the Hormuz reopening story (Commerzbank flagging potential SEK upside vs NOK on easing shipping risk) could move energy-linked pairs if any headlines land during European hours.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both carry bullish momentum into London, and the path of least resistance is higher while DXY trades below 99.70. A break of 99.40 on the dollar index — now just 24 pips away — would likely accelerate the move in both pairs. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) have follow-through potential given overnight copper and crude strength, particularly if European equity futures confirm risk appetite at the open. The dollar’s tone is defensive — gold at $4,413, broad G10 weakness, and sub-100 DXY all point the same way.

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