Asian Session Summary

The dollar got sold across the board overnight. DXY dropped through 99.50 to 99.35, extending its decline as markets continue to price a more dovish Fed path. The move was clean — every G10 pair moved against the greenback, with commodity and risk-sensitive currencies leading. NZD/USD punched through 0.5900 to fresh two-month highs despite weak Chinese activity data, a telling signal that USD weakness is overriding regional headwinds. Gold’s 1.9% surge to 4464 and copper’s 1.4% gain reinforced the reflation-and-sell-dollars theme. Oil was the outlier, with WTI slipping 0.6% to 81.93, keeping CAD’s gains modest relative to peers.

Key Pairs for London

EUR/USD — 1.1609 (+0.64%)
Printed a session high of 1.1616, its best level in this move. The pair has cleared the 1.1600 handle and is trading with momentum. For London, 1.1616 is immediate resistance — a clean break opens the door toward 1.1650. Support sits at the Asian low of 1.1567. The euro is benefiting from broad dollar liquidation rather than EUR-specific demand, so watch whether European traders add to longs or take profit near the highs.

GBP/USD — 1.3563 (+0.54%)
UOB flagged the uptrend as intact with a 1.3600 cap as the next test. Cable printed 1.3571 overnight — just 30 pips shy of that round number. The session low at 1.3531 is the nearest pullback level. Sterling has been firm in its own right, with EUR/GBP barely changed at 0.8557, meaning GBP is keeping pace with EUR strength rather than lagging. A 1.3600 tag in London is the obvious magnet.

USD/CHF — 0.8083 (-0.72%)
The biggest G10 mover against the dollar in percentage terms. Broke below 0.81 convincingly, with the session low at 0.8077. The franc is catching a dual bid — safe-haven demand via gold and broad USD weakness. For London, 0.8077 is the floor to watch. A hold below 0.8100 on any retracement keeps the bearish USD/CHF structure intact.

AUD/USD — 0.7123 (+0.84%)
Fresh highs since June 5, which is notable given the soft China data backdrop. Copper’s 1.4% gain is doing the heavy lifting. Session high at 0.7126 is the level to beat. London typically sees some position squaring in AUD ahead of the European equity open, so a dip toward 0.7085 (the Asian low area) would be a pullback to watch. Above 0.7130, there’s room to 0.7150.

NZD/USD — 0.5922 (+1.15%)
The session’s standout performer. Cleared 0.5900 for the first time in two months despite Commerzbank flagging an RBNZ hold in September. That the kiwi is rallying through bearish rate expectations tells you this is a USD story, not an NZD story. Session high at 0.5926 is resistance. The pair has moved fast — 35 pips off the low — so a London pullback toward 0.5900 (now support) would be the cleaner entry for USD bears.

London Calendar Watch

Monday’s European calendar is typically light on tier-one releases. No UK CPI or PMI on the docket for today. The main scheduled risk is any ECB speaker commentary — with EUR/USD at 1.1600, any hawkish pushback on rate-cut expectations could add fuel. Canada’s July CPI is the North American session event to be aware of, but that lands well after London’s main move. For today, price action and positioning will drive more than data.

Bias Going In

The setup is straightforward: USD is on the back foot and the burden of proof is on dollar bulls to find a catalyst to reverse it. EUR/USD and GBP/USD both carry a bid tone into London, with 1.1650 and 1.3600 as the respective upside targets if the session extends the Asian move. Commodity FX (AUD, NZD, NOK) has room for follow-through given copper and gold’s overnight strength, though AUD and NZD are stretched enough that any risk-off headline could trigger a fast squeeze. DXY below 99.50 keeps the path of least resistance lower until proven otherwise.

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