Asian Session Summary

The Asian session delivered a clear split: commodity-linked currencies outperformed while the Canadian dollar cratered. DXY edged higher to 98.97, up 0.17%, but the move lacked conviction — MUFG flagged fading USD momentum even as yields stayed elevated. The standout was AUD/USD, grinding 0.68% higher to 0.7168 on broad risk appetite, dragging AUD/JPY above the 114 handle. On the other side, USD/CAD ripped to 1.3836 (+0.40%) as headlines around a US-Canada trade escalation hammered the loonie. Gold pushed to 4687 (+1.36%), adding a defensive undertone, while crude oil sold off hard — WTI down 1.64% to $85.63 and Brent off 1.21% to $93.25. That oil weakness didn’t spill into commodity FX broadly; copper held flat, and the Antipodeans ignored the energy drag entirely.

Key Pairs for London

AUD/USD — 0.71679
Today’s strongest G10 mover. The pair pushed to a session high of 0.71788 before fading modestly. The 0.7180 area is the immediate ceiling — a clean break opens the door toward 0.7200, a round number that hasn’t traded in recent sessions. Support sits at the session low of 0.71623. The disconnect between AUD strength and crude weakness suggests this is equity risk appetite rather than a commodity play. Watch whether London confirms or fades the move.

USD/CAD — 1.3836
Loonie is the weakest link. Commerzbank cited trade conflict as the driver, and the “headed for trade war” headline between the US and Canada is doing the work here. Session high of 1.3838 is effectively the resistance to clear for a push toward 1.3850-1.3900. Support is well below at 1.3763 (session low). If London risk sentiment deteriorates on the trade story, this pair has room to extend. CAD/JPY’s 0.22% drop to 115.03 confirms the one-directional loonie sell.

GBP/USD — 1.3635
Holding near six-month highs in a tight 30-pip range (1.3626-1.3656). UOB has a 1.3700 target, and the pair’s refusal to give back gains despite mild DXY bids is constructive. The session low at 1.3626 is the line — a break below flips the short-term picture. London typically drives GBP volatility, and the lack of a clear catalyst so far suggests the move could come on positioning rather than data.

EUR/USD — 1.1671
Drifting lower, off 0.14%, but contained within a 21-pip range (1.1669-1.1690). BNY’s ECB note — patience amid inflation and growth tension — captures the stalemate. The 1.1690 high from earlier in the session is nearby resistance. Below, the round 1.1650 is the first line of defence. This pair needs a catalyst; Monday London opens often provide one through interbank flows.

EUR/AUD — 1.6285
Down 0.80% and the biggest cross mover. AUD strength is doing the heavy lifting. The session low of 1.6277 is the level to watch — a break below targets the 1.6250 zone. If AUD momentum stalls in London, a snapback toward the 1.6306 high is the counterplay.

London Calendar Watch

Monday opens are typically light on tier-1 economic data. No major UK releases are flagged in today’s headlines, and ECB speakers tend to be sparse early in the week. The primary driver will be positioning flows as London desks react to the US-Canada trade headlines that dominated the Asian session. Any follow-up commentary from trade officials on either side could move USD/CAD and broader risk sentiment. Gold’s push above 4680 may attract attention from macro desks watching the Iran sanctions story — headline risk there could inject volatility into USD and JPY pairs during the European morning.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD looks range-bound with a mild downside lean — the 1.1650-1.1690 band should hold absent a fresh catalyst. GBP/USD is the cleaner long setup if risk holds, with the 1.3700 target acting as a magnet and dips toward 1.3626 offering defined risk. Commodity-linked pairs are split: AUD strength could see follow-through given the broad risk tone, but the crude oil selloff puts a cap on CAD and NOK upside. DXY’s bid is shallow — yields are supporting but momentum is fading per MUFG — so dollar rallies are more likely to be sold than chased into the European session.

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