Asian Session Summary

The dollar ground higher through Asia, with DXY nudging above 99.00 (+0.07%) on steady safe-haven demand. The move was broad-based but not aggressive — more of a grind than a spike. Antipodean currencies bore the brunt: NZD/USD dropped 0.41% to 0.5953, with headlines citing safe-haven rotation out of risk-sensitive pairs, while AUD/USD slipped 0.34% to 0.7147. USD/CAD was the session’s biggest mover at +0.47%, trading up to 1.3867 as Brent crude fell 2.3% and Canadian ETF outflow headlines circulated. Gold diverged from the dollar playbook, rallying 1.09% to $4,692 — a combination that typically flags hedging demand rather than pure risk-off.

Key Pairs for London

USD/CAD — 1.3858
The standout mover overnight. A 47-pip climb brings the pair within striking distance of the 1.3900 round number, with the Fibo breakout narrative from the Asian headlines adding technical fuel. The session high sits at 1.3867 — a clean break above opens the path to 1.3900. Support rests at the 1.3835 low. Watch Brent crude for confirmation; if oil stays offered into the London open, the bid under USD/CAD holds.

EUR/USD — 1.1662
Drifted lower but in a tight 19-pip range (1.1655–1.1674). The pair is consolidating below the 1.1700 handle after last week’s strength. For London, 1.1655 is the floor to defend — a break invites a move toward 1.1620. On the topside, reclaiming 1.1674 (today’s high) would suggest the dip is being bought. The euro is holding up better than the antipodeans, which argues the sell-off is dollar-led rather than a broad EUR rethink.

GBP/USD — 1.3639
The rally that dominated recent sessions is taking a breather below 1.3700, exactly as the headline forecast flagged. Today’s range is compressed at 22 pips (1.3623–1.3645). London will decide whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of a deeper retracement. The 1.3623 low is the line — losing it opens 1.3580. Sterling is outperforming the euro on a cross basis (EUR/GBP down 0.09% at 0.8548), so any GBP selling is more about dollar demand than sterling weakness.

AUD/USD — 0.7147
The Aussie is pressing session lows after failing to hold 0.7160. Copper was flat overnight (+0.04%), so the weakness isn’t metals-driven — it reads more like position trimming in risk-linked FX. The session low at 0.71454 is immediate support. A break puts the 0.7120 area in play for London. The AUD/NZD cross is roughly stable, meaning the entire antipodean bloc is being sold together.

USD/CHF — 0.8040
A 43-pip rally from the 0.8013 low, with CHF weakening as gold and the dollar both rise — an unusual setup that suggests franc selling on cross flows rather than a pure risk move. The 0.8042 high is the resistance to clear. If EUR/CHF (0.9374) continues drifting higher, the franc could stay offered through the European morning.

London Calendar Watch

Tuesday calendars in late August tend to be light, with the Jackson Hole hangover effect thinning the schedule. No high-impact releases appear in today’s headline flow. Watch for any ECB speaker commentary drifting out — August recess is ending and policymakers tend to resurface around now with September meeting guidance. The UK data calendar is sparse mid-week in late August, though any BoE commentary would find a receptive market given GBP/USD’s extended run toward 1.3700. With thin liquidity and no hard catalysts, London price action may be technically driven — making the levels above more relevant than usual.

Bias Going In

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both look defensive into the London open, but the selling pressure is moderate — this is dollar firmness, not euro or sterling stress. The gold-dollar co-rally argues for a hedging bid under the greenback rather than a clean risk-off wave, which limits the downside in EUR and GBP unless fresh catalysts emerge. Commodity-linked pairs (AUD, NZD, CAD) have room for further weakness if Brent stays heavy and no Chinese stimulus headlines land. DXY holding above 99.00 sets the tone — the dollar has the bid, and it takes a catalyst to shake it loose.

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