Here’s the Global FX Week Ahead post body:

The setup into Jun 22–Jun 26, 2026

The dollar closed last week at its strongest in over a month. DXY finished at 100.85, up 1.1% on the week, after the FOMC’s hawkish dot-plot shift — nine of nineteen officials now project at least one hike by year-end — combined with the Bank of Japan’s rate increase to 1.00% (the highest since 1995) to create a rare week where the greenback gained against every G10 peer. EUR/USD dropped 1.0% to 1.1459, GBP/USD fell 1.6% to 1.3202 (the week’s worst major), and USD/JPY climbed 0.7% to 161.29 despite the BoJ hike. Scandis were hammered: NOK weakened 2.7%, SEK 1.5%. Oil’s 9.8% collapse in WTI to $76.60 crushed the commodity bloc — NZD/USD shed 1.3% to 0.5755, AUD/USD dropped 0.5% to 0.7013. Gold held flat at $4,224, providing no offset. The carry into this week is unambiguously dollar-positive, with markets now pricing the Fed’s next move as a hike, not a cut.

Jun 22–Jun 26, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Jun 22: The PBoC sets its Loan Prime Rate — consensus is another hold at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year), the 13th consecutive month unchanged. This is background noise unless Beijing surprises with a cut, which would signal deeper concern about domestic demand and weigh on AUD and NZD via the China-proxy channel. Otherwise, a quiet open allows last week’s positioning to consolidate.

Tuesday Jun 23 — Flash PMI day: The first read on June activity drops across three economies simultaneously. Germany and Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMIs arrive in the European morning, followed by UK flash PMIs, then the US S&P Global flash at 9:45am ET. Last month’s US manufacturing print held at 52.0 — any slip below 50 would challenge the “economy can absorb tighter policy” thesis that underpins the hawkish Fed. Eurozone consumer confidence (flash) rounds out the session. This is the day to watch EUR/USD and GBP/USD for directional conviction.

Wednesday Jun 24: Australia’s monthly CPI indicator for May prints at 11:30am AEST. April came in at 4.2% year-over-year — another hot read keeps the RBA boxed in at 4.35% and pressures AUD/USD toward the 0.6950 handle. US new home sales (May) provide a secondary housing read but are unlikely to move the dollar.

Thursday Jun 25 — the marquee session: Three US releases land simultaneously at 8:30am ET: final Q1 GDP (second estimate was +1.6% annualised), May durable goods orders (April surged 7.9% month-over-month), and the headline event — the May PCE price index and core PCE. Core PCE consensus sits around 3.4% year-over-year. A print at or above that level validates the FOMC’s hawkish pivot and likely sends DXY above 101. A soft read below 3.3% would be the week’s only plausible catalyst to unwind the dollar bid. Japan’s national CPI (May) also prints overnight — relevant for yen crosses given the BoJ just hiked to 1%.

Friday Jun 26: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (June final) — the preliminary read bounced to 48.9 from May’s all-time-low 44.8, but still historically depressed. End-of-month and end-of-quarter rebalancing flows add noise. Light otherwise.

Levels and instruments to watch

DXY at 100.85 reclaimed the psychological 100 handle and has room to test 101.50 (late-May structure) if PCE cooperates. A failure to hold 100 on a soft print re-opens the 99.00–99.50 zone. EUR/USD at 1.1459 sits just above the 1.1400 support that has held since April — a break below exposes 1.1300. GBP/USD at 1.3202 already gave back June’s entire rally; the next support cluster is 1.3100–1.3120. USD/JPY at 161.29 is in intervention-risk territory — the BoJ hiked but the pair still rose, meaning rate differentials overwhelm policy signals. Watch for verbal jawboning above 162.

In the commodity bloc, AUD/USD at 0.7013 trades exactly at the 0.7000 round number — a close below would be the first since May and opens 0.6900. NZD/USD at 0.5755 is already below its 50-day moving average. Oil’s collapse to $76.60 WTI makes NOK (9.7407) and CAD (1.4141) vulnerable to further weakness if crude doesn’t stabilise.

The bias

The read into this week is USD-firm, range-to-higher. The post-FOMC repricing has not fully washed through positioning — speculative EUR and GBP longs built during May’s dollar sell-off are still being unwound. The calendar supports the dollar: flash PMIs on Tuesday need to beat convincingly to offset the Fed’s hawkish signal, and PCE on Thursday is the confirmation event. If core PCE prints 3.4% or above, the “higher for longer becomes higher for real” narrative crystallises and DXY pushes toward 101.50.

The one thing that flips it: a PCE miss below 3.3% combined with soft US PMIs. That combination would reintroduce doubt about the hike path and give EUR/USD room to reclaim 1.1550. Without both, sellers of EUR, GBP, and the commodity bloc have the fundamental wind at their backs this week.