Now I have all the calendar data. Let me write the Week Ahead post.

The setup into Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026

Global FX heads into the week of Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026 with the US dollar on the back foot. DXY closed at 100.75, down 0.2% on the week and testing levels not seen since early Q2. The bigger story was in commodities: WTI surged 14.5% to $81.78 and Brent jumped 15.9% to $88.10 on Iran war escalation — a move that lit up commodity-linked FX. NZD/USD was the G10 standout at 0.5842 (+1.4%), USD/CAD fell to 1.4037 (-0.9%), and AUD/USD pushed to the edge of the 0.70 handle at 0.6999. Gold gave back 2.1% to $4,018.80 as the oil bid drained safe-haven flows. EUR/USD at 1.1446 and GBP/USD at 1.3479 both gained modestly against the weakening greenback. USD/JPY held flat at 162.35 despite verbal intervention from Tokyo — Scotiabank noted that jawboning failed to move the yen.

Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Jul 20: Canada June CPI — the first read since BoC held at 2.25% on Jul 15; energy is expected to correct lower but BoC core measures remain the focus for September pricing. PBoC sets the monthly Loan Prime Rate fixing — the 1Y LPR has been at 3.0% and the 5Y at 3.5% for 13 consecutive months; no change expected but any tweak would be a rare policy signal with USD/CNH at 6.777.

Tuesday Jul 21: New Zealand Q2 CPI — the quarterly print that the RBNZ keys off. Energy prices (fuel at the pump) are expected to push headline higher; a hot read would challenge the rate-cut pricing that drove NZD/USD’s 1.4% rally last week. UK labour market data (earnings, employment change, claimant count) feeds into the BoE’s August calculus.

Wednesday Jul 22: UK June CPI — the last inflation read before the BoE’s August 6 meeting. The prior print held at 2.8% YoY; any upside surprise keeps GBP/USD bid (last at 1.3479) while a miss would rebuild rate-cut expectations. Euro Area Bank Lending Survey adds texture ahead of Thursday’s ECB event.

Thursday Jul 23: The main event — ECB rate decision at 13:45 CET. Markets price a hold at 98.7% probability after June’s 25bp hike took the deposit facility to 2.25%. This is a non-projection meeting, so all eyes turn to Lagarde’s press conference for forward guidance. Australian June employment data rounds out the Asia-Pacific session. US weekly jobless claims and Chicago Fed National Activity Index fill the US morning.

Friday Jul 24: Flash PMIs from S&P Global — Germany, Eurozone, UK, and US manufacturing and services. These are the first July activity readings for major economies and will set the tone into month-end. UK retail sales (June) and US new home sales complete the calendar.

Levels and instruments to watch

DXY at 100.75 is the fulcrum. The index has failed to reclaim 101 on successive attempts — a weekly close below 100.50 would mark the lowest since April and invite momentum shorts targeting the 99.50–100.00 zone. EUR/USD at 1.1446 needs the ECB press conference to stay above the 1.14 figure; a hawkish hold could push toward 1.1520. GBP/USD at 1.3479 sits near the top of its three-month range — Wednesday’s CPI is the binary: a 2.9%+ print probably drives a test of 1.3550.

In commodity FX, NZD/USD at 0.5842 faces Tuesday’s Q2 CPI as a potential reversal catalyst after last week’s outsized rally. AUD/USD at 0.6999 is one pip below the psychological 0.70 level — Thursday’s Australian jobs data and the broader oil bid (Brent at $88.10) are the two drivers. USD/CAD at 1.4037 has Monday’s CPI as the next directional input. USD/JPY at 162.35 remains in verbal-intervention territory; the 163.00 level is the line Tokyo is defending.

The bias

The tilt is risk-on with a commodity edge. Oil’s 15% weekly surge puts CAD, NOK, and the petro-complex in the driver’s seat, while a weakening DXY gives antipodean and EM FX room to extend. The ECB hold is priced — the risk is an unexpectedly hawkish Lagarde signalling September is live, which would compress EUR/USD vol and push the euro higher against the crosses (EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD). The one thing that flips the read: flash PMIs on Friday printing contractionary for both Eurozone and US services — that would signal the oil shock is already hitting demand and snap the reflation trade. Until then, the path of least resistance is dollar-lower, commodity-higher, and yen-flat-to-weak.