Now I have the full confirmed calendar. Let me write the post.

The setup into Aug 17–Aug 21, 2026

Global FX heads into the week of Aug 17–Aug 21 with the dollar index treading water. DXY closed Friday at 99.67, up just 0.1% on the week — a session where a soft US Retail Sales print pulled the greenback lower before oil-driven Treasury yield strength clawed it back. The bigger story last week was yen weakness: USD/JPY climbed 0.6% to 159.43, and the yen crosses ran hard — CAD/JPY +1.3% to 114.47, AUD/JPY +1.1% to 112.61, EUR/JPY +1.0% to 184.37. That carry-trade momentum carries into the new week, but the calendar is loaded enough to disrupt it. WTI’s 5.4% rally to $82.40 and gold’s push to $4,437 add a commodity tailwind that favours AUD (0.7064, +0.4%) and CAD (USD/CAD 1.3927, -0.6%) — both outperformed the dollar bloc last week.

Aug 17–Aug 21, 2026 — the calendar

Monday: China’s July data dump lands during the Asian session — industrial production, retail sales (forecast +0.8% YoY, slowing), and fixed asset investment (forecast -5.9% YoY). Weak prints risk dragging AUD and NZD lower at the open. Canada July CPI (8:30 AM ET) is the day’s G10 headline — core median near 1.9% keeps the BoC easing window open; a hot surprise tightens USD/CAD further below 1.3927. US Empire State manufacturing and NAHB housing round out the session.

Tuesday: UK labour market data drops at 2 AM ET — average earnings and the unemployment rate set the first leg of the week’s GBP triple-header. In the US, housing starts, building permits, and industrial production land between 8:30 and 9:15 AM ET. Home Depot reports pre-market — the first of four major retail earnings this week, and a consumer-spending signal that feeds the Fed narrative.

Wednesday: The week’s heaviest day. UK July CPI (2 AM ET) is the GBP event — headline previously at 2.6% YoY, and any upside surprise delays BoE cut pricing. Then at 2 PM ET, the FOMC Minutes from the July 28–29 meeting land. This is the week’s main event. Three committee members dissented in favour of hiking at that meeting while rates held at 3.50–3.75%. Markets will parse how close the full committee came to a rate increase, and whether the language tilts toward a September move. Target and Lowe’s report pre-market, adding retail-sector data points.

Thursday: Three Asian-session movers stack up overnight. The PBoC sets its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates — both expected to hold at 3.00% and 3.50%, but a surprise cut would send risk assets and commodity FX higher. Thirty minutes later, Australia July employment lands — June’s +76,300 was a blowout; a strong follow-through cements the RBA’s hold stance and supports AUD above 0.70. US weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed follow. Walmart and Alibaba report pre-market — the week’s biggest earnings prints for consumer and China sentiment respectively.

Friday: Global flash PMI day. Germany manufacturing (previously 50.9) and Eurozone composite PMIs roll through the European morning, followed by UK manufacturing and services, then US S&P Global flash PMIs at 9:45 AM ET. UK retail sales at 2 AM ET complete the sterling trifecta — wages, inflation, and spending in a single week give the market a full BoE pricing update. Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) looms the following week, with Chair Warsh’s first keynote speech already drawing positioning.

Levels and instruments to watch

DXY at 99.67 sits at a compressed point — the 0.1% weekly range was the tightest in months. A hawkish FOMC read pushes toward 100.50; a dovish one reopens 99.00. USD/JPY at 159.43 is the carry proxy — the yen crosses (CAD/JPY 114.47, AUD/JPY 112.61) will amplify any risk-sentiment shift from the Minutes or China data.

EUR/USD at 1.1573 needs Friday’s flash PMIs to break the range. German manufacturing at 50.9 is one print away from contraction — a sub-50 reading would pressure EUR/USD toward 1.1500. EUR/CHF at 0.9406 and EUR/GBP at 0.8548 are the cross gauges for relative European weakness.

AUD/USD at 0.7064 has the clearest two-way risk: China data Monday and Australia employment Thursday. The headlines already flag bulls eyeing 0.7100 — that level is the near-term decision point. GBP/USD at 1.3491 trades the triple-header; if all three UK prints come in firm, BoE September cut odds compress and cable tests 1.3550. USD/CNH at 6.7434 was flat last week despite PBoC steady-appreciation guidance from Societe Generale — a LPR cut Thursday would be the catalyst for a break lower.

The bias

The read into the week is range-bound with a mild USD bid, driven by the FOMC Minutes risk. Three dissents at the July meeting make this release unusually market-moving — the minutes could reveal a committee closer to hiking than the headline decision suggested. That keeps short-end rates supported and the dollar offered a floor. But the setup is asymmetric: hawkish minutes confirm what’s priced, while dovish language — any signal that the dissents were isolated — reopens the September debate and sends DXY toward 99.00 fast.

The thing that flips it: a dovish FOMC read combined with weak China data Monday. That combination would pull US yields lower while commodity FX (AUD, NZD, CAD) gets hit from the Asia side — a messy cross-current that resolves in yen strength and a flatter dollar. Watch the yen crosses as the tell. If CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY give back last week’s gains before Wednesday, the carry trade is already unwinding ahead of the Minutes.