Now I have the macro context. Let me write the post.

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The Week in the Dollar

Oil diplomacy, not central banks, drove the tape this week — crude’s near-7% collapse on US-Iran ceasefire momentum pulled the commodity currencies lower while the dollar index drifted sideways, finishing at 99.81 (-0.26%).

The DXY’s indecision made sense. Tuesday’s May CPI print landed hot at 4.2% year-over-year — a three-year high powered by a 3.9% monthly energy spike — which should have been dollar-bullish. But the same Hormuz reopening hopes that crushed oil also implied the energy impulse was peaking, giving traders reason to fade the inflation scare. The ECB’s 25bp hike to a 2.25% deposit rate on Wednesday added a cross-current, briefly lifting EUR/USD before it settled back to 1.1573 (-0.34% on the week).

The real action was in the petro- and commodity-linked crosses. WTI dropped 6.9% to $84.29 and Brent fell 6.85% to $86.71, taking the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar with them. Gold slipped 2.24% to $4,240 as safe-haven demand unwound alongside the geopolitical de-escalation. Copper was the outlier, rallying 3.36% on the theory that a post-conflict rebuild cycle would lift industrial demand.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/NOK +1.83% to 9.5074 — The week’s biggest G10 mover and it wasn’t close. Norway’s economy runs on oil revenue, and a near-7% drop in crude is a direct hit to the krone’s terms of trade. USD/NOK is now testing the 9.50 handle from below; a weekly close above here opens 9.60-9.65 if oil stays offered.

AUD/USD -1.17% to 0.70487 — The Aussie caught a double downdraft: crude’s collapse and lingering China growth anxiety. The hot US CPI print didn’t help either, keeping the Fed-RBA rate differential in play. AUD/USD sliced through 0.71 and is sitting just above the round 0.70 figure that’s acted as a floor since March. A break below opens 0.6950.

GBP/AUD +1.09% to 1.9028 — A derivative of AUD weakness rather than GBP strength — cable itself was flat at 1.3407 (-0.15%). The cross is pushing toward 1.91 for the first time in months, and with the BoE decision due next Thursday, a hold-steady outcome could keep GBP supported relative to the struggling Aussie.

AUD/JPY -1.02% to 112.90 — Risk-off in the commodity bloc meets a yen that refused to weaken further despite USD/JPY pinned at 160.18. The BoJ rate decision is also next week, and any hint of further tightening to defend the yen could send AUD/JPY toward the 111 support zone.

Week Ahead Setup

Next week is the main event. The FOMC announces Wednesday — Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair — with rates expected to hold at 3.50-3.75%. The question is the dot plot and press conference tone: does the committee acknowledge the oil-driven CPI spike is transitory, or does Warsh set a hawkish marker? The BoE follows Thursday, and the BoJ rounds out the central-bank triple.

USD/JPY at 160.18 is the pair everyone’s watching. Japanese authorities have intervened near these levels before, and a hawkish BoJ surprise combined with a dovish Fed lean could trigger a sharp unwind. GBP/USD at 1.3407 is the other focus — a BoE hold while the Fed stays patient would keep cable well-bid above 1.33.

Oil remains the wildcard. If US-Iran talks produce a concrete timeline for reopening Hormuz, NOK and AUD face another leg lower. If talks stall, crude bounces and the commodity currencies snap back fast.

Bottom Line

The FX market spent this week repricing geopolitical risk premiums out of oil and into the commodity currencies, while the dollar sat in the middle, torn between hot inflation data and fading energy prices. All eyes shift to the Fed on Wednesday — USD/JPY at 160.18 is the pressure point that could break in either direction depending on what Warsh signals about the path forward.

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Here’s the ~800-word FX weekly recap covering the June 9-13 trading week. Key editorial choices:

– **Lead theme:** Oil’s ~7% crash on US-Iran Hormuz deal optimism as the week’s dominant FX driver, explaining why DXY barely moved while commodity currencies got hammered
– **ECB hike** (25bp to 2.25% on June 11) woven into the dollar section as a cross-current
– **US CPI** (4.2% YoY, hot but energy-driven) framed as dollar-bullish but faded by markets expecting peak energy inflation
– **Week ahead** anchored on the Fed/BoE/BoJ triple-header, with USD/JPY 160.18 as the focal point
– No Stellar/bot references per the standing rule

All levels and percentages are from the provided data block only.