Now I have the full macro picture. Let me write the post.

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Here’s the FX Weekly Recap post body:

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The dollar posted its best week in over a month after the Fed’s dot plot flipped hawkish mid-week, while a near-10% collapse in crude oil gutted the petro-currencies and gold’s retreat stripped the safe-haven bid from the franc and yen.

The Week in the Dollar

DXY climbed +1.1% to 100.8, driven almost entirely by Wednesday’s FOMC outcome. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% as expected, but the updated dot plot was the shock — nine of eighteen officials now project at least one hike before year-end, a sharp reversal from March when the median still implied a cut. Chair Warsh’s press conference reinforced the message: upside inflation risks are the committee’s dominant concern.

The commodity complex amplified the move. WTI crude collapsed 9.8% to $76.54 and Brent fell 7.7% to $80.59 as US-Iran peace-deal momentum raised the prospect of restored Strait of Hormuz shipping flows. That hammered the oil-leveraged Scandinavian and Canadian currencies. Gold dropped 1.0% to $4,173 and copper slid 1.5% to $6.337, removing support from the Aussie and Kiwi. The result was broad-based dollar strength with no G10 pair finishing the week stronger against the greenback.

Key Pair Breakdown

USD/NOK +2.0% to 9.6812 — The week’s biggest G10 mover and it wasn’t close. Norway’s krone took a double hit: the oil crash cut directly into the country’s petroleum-revenue outlook, and Norges Bank’s own signaling of a possible first cut as early as this month kept rate support thin. The pair is trading at levels not seen since early May.

USD/CHF +1.6% to 0.8064 — The SNB held at 0% on Thursday and explicitly flagged willingness to intervene against excessive franc strength. With gold retreating and the Fed leaning hawkish, the safe-haven bid that had propped up CHF through May evaporated. The 0.81 handle is back in play for the first time in weeks.

NZD/USD −1.6% to 0.5742 — The Kiwi was the weakest of the commodity bloc. Copper’s 1.5% slide weighed on New Zealand’s terms-of-trade proxy, and the hawkish Fed repricing widened the rate differential against the RBNZ’s easing trajectory. The pair is testing the floor of its three-month range near 0.5720.

USD/SEK +1.4% to 9.5741 — Sweden’s krona tracked Norway’s losses, though at a smaller magnitude given less direct oil exposure. The Riksbank’s dovish lean relative to the Fed’s new hawkish posture did the damage. The pair pushed above 9.55 resistance.

GBP/USD −1.3% to 1.3237 — Sterling dropped despite the BoE holding at 3.75% with a 7–2 vote (two members actually wanted a hike). The problem was positioning — cable had been bid into the meeting on rate-hike expectations, and the majority hold triggered a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” unwind. The hawkish Fed widened the transatlantic rate gap further. The 1.3200 level is the next line of defense.

USD/CAD +1.3% to 1.4149 — The loonie’s oil sensitivity was on full display. WTI’s 9.8% plunge drove the pair above 1.41, and the BoC’s recent dovish pivot offered no counterweight. The pair is approaching the 1.4200 zone that capped rallies in April.

Week Ahead Setup

The post-FOMC repricing still has room to run. Markets are now pricing one 25bp Fed hike by October — any upside surprise in next week’s US PCE data (due Friday) could pull that forward and extend the dollar rally. Flash PMIs on Monday will be the first read on whether the hawkish hold is already tightening financial conditions.

USD/NOK is the pair to watch for continuation — if oil stabilizes near $76, the krone could find a floor, but another leg lower in crude opens 9.80+. GBP/USD at 1.3200 is a clean technical level; a break lower targets 1.3150. NZD/USD near 0.5720 is sitting on range support — a weekly close below that would mark a fresh leg in the downtrend. USD/JPY at 161.28 is drifting toward the 162 zone that triggered verbal intervention warnings from Tokyo last year.

Bottom Line

The Fed’s hawkish pivot gave the dollar a clean sweep across G10 this week, and the oil crash made it worse for anyone long commodity currencies. USD/NOK is the pair traders are watching most closely — it sits at the intersection of the two dominant forces (hawkish Fed + collapsing crude) and will be the first to signal whether this move has legs or is already stretched.

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Post is ready — ~790 words covering all four sections. The key narrative threads:

1. **Fed dot-plot flip** (9/18 now projecting a hike) as the primary dollar catalyst
2. **Oil crash** (~10% WTI) on US-Iran peace deal momentum hammering NOK/CAD
3. **Central bank triple-hold** (Fed/BoE/SNB all unchanged) leaving rate differentials favoring USD
4. **Week ahead** anchored on US PCE Friday + flash PMIs Monday