Now I have the full macro context. Let me write the post.

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The Week in the Dollar

The dollar logged its softest week since mid-June after a dismal payrolls print revived rate-cut pricing, sending DXY down 0.5% to 100.9 and lifting risk-sensitive currencies across the board.

Thursday’s June NFP report was the catalyst. The economy added just 57,000 jobs — roughly half the 110K consensus — while April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000. Unemployment held at 4.2%, but the headline miss was enough to push the greenback lower against every G10 peer. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra on Tuesday, had declined to telegraph a July decision while repeating that inflation remains “too high,” but the jobs data shifted the market’s attention from sticky prices to a cooling labour market.

Commodity markets echoed the tone. Gold jumped 2.66% to $4,187, its strongest weekly gain in over a month, as real-rate expectations pulled lower. Copper added 1.34%, supporting the Aussie and Kiwi. Oil was mixed — WTI slipped 0.65% to $68.78 while Brent edged up 0.19% to $72.13 — leaving the petro-linked currencies (CAD, NOK) with divergent signals. NOK rallied regardless, riding the broad dollar weakness.

Key Pair Breakdown

GBP/USD +1.23% to 1.335 — Sterling was the week’s top performer in G10. The Bank of England’s decision to hold at 3.75% in June, combined with UK CPI steady at 2.8%, gives the MPC less urgency to ease than the Fed now faces after the NFP miss. Cable broke above 1.33 on Thursday and held the gains into the July 4 US holiday close. The 1.34 handle is the next resistance — a level not tested since late 2024.

NZD/USD +1.22% to 0.5712 — The Kiwi matched sterling’s pace, benefiting from the copper rally and a general bid for high-beta commodity currencies. The pair had been compressed below 0.57 for weeks; Thursday’s dollar sell-off popped it through. A sustained hold above 0.57 would mark a shift in the medium-term downtrend that has dominated NZD since Q1.

USD/NOK −1.14% to 9.8195 — The Norwegian krone outperformed despite the mixed oil picture, suggesting this move was more about broad dollar liquidation than crude. NOK tends to amplify G10 dollar weakness given its lower liquidity. The 9.80 level is a near-term floor — a break below would open up the 9.65–9.70 zone.

Week Ahead Setup

The July 4 holiday truncated Friday’s session, meaning the full NFP reaction may not be priced until Monday’s London open. Expect follow-through dollar selling early in the week unless ISM Services (due Thursday, July 9) prints hot enough to offset the payrolls miss.

No major central-bank decisions land next week — the ECB (July 23), Fed (July 29), and BoE (July 30) are all three weeks out. That leaves the data calendar in charge. Key prints: Eurozone retail sales (Monday), US JOLTS (Tuesday), FOMC minutes from the June hold (Wednesday), and ISM Services (Thursday). If services employment echoes manufacturing’s sub-50 reading (49.7 in June), rate-cut pricing will accelerate and the dollar sell-off has room to extend.

GBP/USD is the pair to watch at 1.335 — a daily close above 1.34 would be technically meaningful. USD/JPY at 161.34 barely moved this week despite dollar weakness; if US yields follow rates pricing lower, the yen may catch up with a delayed move.

Bottom Line

The dollar enters next week on the back foot after the worst payrolls print in four months landed squarely on the “growth scare” side of the Fed’s dual mandate. GBP/USD at 1.335, pressing multi-year highs with the rate differential still in sterling’s corner, is the pair most traders will be sizing up on the Monday reopen.

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