Marvell ran 32% on Tuesday. HPE ran 19%. Lumentum and Coherent both ran double digits. NVIDIA closed red. That is not a sector rotation — that is the market re-pricing where the AI margin actually lives. The S&P 500 ticked +0.13% to 7,609.78 for its 9th straight green session while the VIX printed 15.77. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the tape “greed mode.” MarketWatch flagged a “breadth paradox.” Anthropic is heading into its IPO under a spending backlash. All four observations can be true at the same time, and the way today’s open and ADP print resolve them sets the next two weeks.

What moved overnight

The indexes were boring. S&P 500 +0.13% to 7,609.78. Nasdaq +0.03% to 27,094. Dow +0.45% to 51,308. Russell 2000 +0.90% to 2,932 — small caps actually led, which would be a healthy signal in any other tape. The 10-year yield slipped two basis points to 4.45%, the 30-year sat at 4.97%, and the VIX closed at 15.77 — near a one-month low.

The single-name action came entirely from the AI infrastructure complex. Marvell Technology (MRVL) ripped +32.5% to $290.79 after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly called Marvell a potential “next trillion-dollar company” at Computex and the company unveiled its Teralynx T100 — the industry’s first 102.4 Tbps switch silicon for AI data centers. The Q1 FY27 print a week earlier (net revenue $2.42B, data center +27% y/y, FY27 outlook raised) was the setup; Huang’s endorsement was the trigger. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) ran +19.5% to $56.15 on Monday-after-close Q2 results: revenue $10.7B (+40%), networking up 148%, AI orders of $1.8B, and FY26 guidance raised. Optical came with it — Lumentum (LITE) +13.7%, Coherent (COHR) +17.6%. Broadcom (AVGO) +4.7%. Super Micro (SMCI) +7%.

The conspicuous absentee: NVIDIA closed -0.7% at $222.82 while everything downstream of it rocketed. Crude added another 1.4% to $93.48 on rolling Iran headlines.

Trending in markets right now

Three threads have cross-source confirmation today, and they all rhyme.

First, the AI capex frothiness debate. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told CNBC at a Tuesday Economic Club of New York event that there is “more greed than there is fear” in markets as OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX line up for the public markets. The same news cycle had Anthropic facing a spending backlash before its IPO and Morningstar pegging SpaceX’s fair value at $780 billion — roughly half its rumoured IPO target. Social conversations didn’t latch onto “AI is over.” They latched onto the split: names that print real revenue are getting rewarded, names that only burn money are getting questioned. Tuesday’s tape was exactly that lesson, ticker by ticker.

Second, the breadth paradox. The S&P’s 9-day streak triggered the warning MarketWatch flagged — wider index gains driven by fewer participants. Tuesday underlined it. Mega-cap tech was mixed (NVIDIA red, META and MSFT roughly flat); yesterday’s gainers concentrated in one supply-chain layer. The streak itself is real. The thing carrying it is narrow.

Third, Google search interest is surging in MSFT (+7), SPY (+5), and META (+3) over the past week — a quiet rotation conversation that didn’t make a single headline. Less heat on NVDA and TSLA. For yesterday’s price recap by cap tier, see our Movers daily; for what’s running right now, Trending has the live board.

Three things to watch today

ADP private payrolls at 8:15am ET. Tuesday’s JOLTS surprised with the biggest jump in openings since 2021, while hiring stayed soft. ADP is the Wednesday read into Friday’s NFP. A weak ADP with rising openings is the textbook “freeze, don’t fire” signature — companies posting roles but not pulling the trigger. That’s late-cycle.

NVIDIA’s follow-through. Every name downstream of NVDA ran on Tuesday; NVDA itself didn’t. Either today catches up — optical and server names dragging it along — or it doesn’t, and the market is telling you the picks-and-shovels are taking margin NVDA used to keep. One of those is true by Wednesday’s close. Watch this, not the index print.

Crude at $93. WTI is +5% over five days on Iran headlines. The bond market hasn’t repriced inflation yet — the 10-year is still 4.45%. If crude breaks $95 and the 10-year stays put, something is mispriced. If the 10-year backs up to 4.55%+, high-multiple AI stocks get the bill.

Bottom line

The setup heading into Wednesday: a 9-day streak on a sleepy VIX, with conviction concentrated in one layer of one sector. Goldman called it greed. The breadth chart called it narrow. The optical and server prints called it earnings reality. All three can be true at once, and Wednesday’s ADP plus NVIDIA’s open are the two data points that resolve which one matters most.

Watch NVDA’s follow-through, not the S&P close. If picks-and-shovels keep running while NVDA stays flat, the market is repricing where AI margin lives. If NVDA catches up, yesterday was rotation noise. ADP at 8:15 breaks the tie on the labour side.