Yesterday’s chip relief lasted exactly one session. AMD closed -3.0%, INTC -2.1%, SOXX -1.6%, and the semiconductor short interest CNBC flagged this morning isn’t unwinding — it’s piling on. The Dow held flat, the Russell closed +0.4%, and the VIX only nudged to 19.9. That’s rotation, not panic. But it’s rotation away from the AI complex 12 hours before the May CPI print, and the bond market spent the session telling you it’s not worried about cuts — because it doesn’t expect any.

What moved overnight

The S&P closed -0.26% at 7,386, the Nasdaq -0.97% at 25,679, and the Dow eked out +0.17% — the kind of split where every rally story since February gets stress-tested in one tape. NVDA somehow held flat at $208 (-0.2%), but the rest of the chip aisle didn’t: AMD -3.0%, INTC -2.1%, AVGO -1.1% even after the Apollo and Blackstone-backed $35 billion Broadcom capacity expansion for Anthropic crossed the wires. Money rotated, not exited — Russell 2000 +0.4%, Dow green, VIX still under 20.

The 10-year sat at 4.53% (-2bp), the 30-year at 5.01%, and the dollar barely moved (DXY 99.96). Crude fell 2.85% on softer Iran rhetoric even as the White House warned of a response to the Hormuz helicopter incident — the tape is choosing peace-hope pricing over war-premium pricing for now. Gold gave back 1.2%. Bitcoin slipped under $62.2k. None of these moves are large in isolation; the story is that they all happened on the same day chips led down.

For the single-name action by cap tier, see Tuesday’s Biggest Stock Movers recap.

Trending in markets right now

Social conversations are circling three things, and none of them are the CPI print everyone professes to care about. The loudest thread is SpaceX’s IPO — a Reuters source pegged demand at roughly four times the shares available, and retail can’t get a clean answer on allocation. That’s not a market story, but it tells you risk appetite in the primary market is alive even as the secondary tape sells AI exposure. OpenAI’s reported IPO plans behind it amplify the same signal: the IPO window is wide open for the right name, narrow for everyone else.

Second: the cut thesis is dying in slow motion. Reuters’ new economist poll has the Fed holding rates all year, and the framing — “war inflation persists” — matters because it gives the Fed a politically defensible reason to do nothing without sounding hawkish. Google search interest is surging in “rate cut 2026” and “CPI May 2026,” which is what you’d expect when retail is finally noticing that the cut bets that were near 50% a month ago are now closer to a coin flip on whether we get one at all. The bond market figured this out a while ago — the 10-year above 4.5% with the 30-year at 5% has been screaming it.

Third: semiconductor shorts are pressing. CNBC’s flag this morning — that the winning trade is reversing — lines up with the AMD/INTC/AVGO leadership lower and the fact that SOXX has now given back roughly a third of its post-DeepSeek recovery. The counter-argument is that NVDA held flat on a -1% Nasdaq day. The market is willing to short the chip beta, not the chip thesis.

For the live mover tape during US hours, the /trending page tracks gainers, losers, and most-active.

Three things to watch today

May CPI, 8:30am ET (~10:30pm Mel). Consensus has headline at +0.2% m/m and core at +0.3%. The bar is asymmetric — an in-line print lets dip-buyers return to chips and the long-duration growth names that got sold today. A 0.4% core surprise locks in “no cuts in 2026,” and the AI complex doesn’t get a referendum, it gets a verdict.

Fed speakers on the tape after the print. Watch the language on whether war-linked energy is being treated as base-case persistent or as transitory pass-through. The former is hawkish without sounding like it; the latter is the door the dovish minority will push on.

The semiconductor short interest read post-CPI. If the tape rallies on an in-line print and SOXX still can’t reclaim 580, the rotation thesis is real and the AI trade has lost its bid. If chips lead the bounce, today’s selloff was pre-CPI positioning, not regime change.

Bottom line

The setup into tonight’s CPI isn’t a binary about whether the Fed cuts — that question is mostly settled in the bond market already. It’s about whether the rotation out of chips is a one-day repositioning or the start of something larger. Watch SOXX relative to the S&P after the print, not the headline beat-or-miss. If chips lead the bounce, the AI trade earns another month. If the Russell keeps leading and chips keep bleeding even on a soft print, the rotation is the story for the rest of June.